Saudi Arabia Turns to Back-Channel Talks to Contain Houthi Threat

The renewed diplomacy lays bare Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman's dilemma. The Houthis opened a new front in the Iran war by threatening any ships calling at the kingdom's ports. Saudi Arabia wants to respond to Houthi attacks without being sucked into renewed fighting.

US officials have privately discouraged a major Saudi military retaliation to Houthi strikes on vessels off its Red Sea coast, regional and western diplomats said. Washington fears that worsening Saudi-Houthi hostilities would further disrupt global shipping and energy markets. The conflict could possibly close the Bab el-Mandeb strait, another chokepoint vital for flows of energy. Oil prices have already soared 35% this year, mainly because of the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.

A broader military campaign risks drawing Saudi Arabia even deeper into the regional conflict with Iran. Riyadh had to defend itself against Iranian missile and drone attacks during the height of the war in March and early April. More recently, the Houthis and Iran-supported militias in Iraq have fired projectiles at its petroleum facilities, including refineries.

For the Houthis, the talks represent a way to extract financial and humanitarian gains they could not win on the battlefield. For Saudi Arabia, the calculus is simpler: keep oil flowing from its Red Sea ports while Hormuz remains effectively shut.

Whether the Houthis are willing to trade their leverage at sea for concessions on land is the open question. The group has shown little appetite to de-escalate while it holds the initiative.

A full breakdown of the talks would leave Saudi Arabia with few good options. Airstrikes alone have not dislodged the Houthis before. A ground campaign is not something Riyadh is prepared to restart.