US intelligence assessments suggest Putin may consider limited military or hybrid operations against NATO allies in coming years, testing alliance response, officials said.
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US intelligence assessments suggest President Vladimir Putin could authorize a limited military or hybrid operation against a NATO ally in the coming years, testing how firmly the alliance would respond, according to people familiar with the latest intelligence reports. CNN and CBS first reported the assessments, citing U.S. officials.
The operations could involve cyberattacks, deniable activities, and other moves that stop short of a full-scale conventional campaign, the officials said. The assessments mark a shift in Putin's risk calculus compared with just a few months ago. They indicate a greater willingness to take actions that probe NATO's response without directly triggering a conventional conflict, the officials added.
Putin, in a speech last month, accused Western nations of double standards and said sanctions had failed. He claimed Russia would achieve its objectives in Ukraine and that Western efforts to weaken Russia had not broken the country.
NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte, speaking earlier in April, pointed to recent incursions along the alliance's eastern flank. He cited an incident where Russian MiG-31s entered Estonian airspace and were turned back by Italian, Finnish, and Swedish aircraft. He also noted that a Dutch F-35 shot down a Russian drone that wandered into Poland. Rutte stressed that collective defence remains central to NATO's purpose and that Russian threats cannot be separated from wider cooperation among hostile states.
The assessments do not predict an imminent attack, but they raise the risk of miscalculation. A strong and unified NATO response would reduce the likelihood of further probing, officials said. Continued hybrid operations that go unanswered could embolden Russia to escalate.
Rutte warned that American security depends on a stable Europe and a secure Arctic and Atlantic. Vulnerabilities in those regions could expose the U.S. and its allies to threats from Russia and other adversaries, he said.
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