Kremlin-linked lender dismisses analyst after he warned costs are 'mounting' and the country faces social crisis. Analysts see a zero-tolerance signal.
Alpha Score of 43 reflects weak overall profile with moderate momentum, weak value, weak quality. Based on 3 of 4 signals — score is capped at 90 until remaining data ingests.
Russia's state development bank VEB fired its former chief economist Andrei Klepach on Sunday after a report in which he warned the country could not win a prolonged war of attrition with Ukraine, according to exiled Russian outlet The Bell.
Klepach, a former deputy economy minister, told fellow economists at a May 21 presentation that costs are "mounting" and that the war would end in a social crisis, not economic collapse. "In this war of attrition we will not win the competition. We're under the illusion that everything will collapse. It hasn't, and it won't," he said, according to a translation of his remarks. "I believe Russia won't collapse, but I'm almost certain that we'll end up in a social crisis."
The dismissal signals the Kremlin's zero-tolerance approach to public dissent as the war approaches its fifth year, analysts said. A spokesperson for the Russian Embassy to the UK told CNBC – which originally reported the story Friday – that Russia's fiscal position remains "significantly stronger" than many Western economies and its economy "remains resilient, as does the will of our people."
The embassy pointed to Russia's foreign public debt of roughly $57 billion, calling it "considerably less" than what the U.S., UK, Italy or France spend on debt servicing alone. "Attempts to undermine Russia through economic pressure have not produced the results their authors expected," the spokesperson said.
Anders Aslund, a Swedish economist and former senior fellow at the Atlantic Council, said Klepach's firing was no surprise. "In an eminent analysis, he concluded that Russia could not win a war of attrition against Ukraine and that Russia was likely to end up in a social crisis as in 1917," Aslund said on X Sunday.
Nigel Gould-Davies, senior fellow for Russia and Eurasia at the International Institute for Strategic Studies, called Klepach "very capable and smart" in a separate social media post. "I have long said the best economic minds in Russia are the most alarmed. This again confirms it."
Russia's wartime economy has come under renewed scrutiny as Ukraine's long-range drone strikes hit oil refineries and delivery warehouses this month. GDP data shows slow growth, but analysts say that masks over-reliance on military spending, higher taxes and subsidized bank lending. Klepach forecast a widening technological and living-standards gap even if Russia avoids full economic collapse.
VEB could not be reached for comment. The Bell cited unnamed sources in its initial report linking the dismissal to the speech; CNBC said it could not independently verify the connection.
Drafted by a large language model from the source reporting linked above, then screened by automated publishing checks. It is not read by a journalist before publication. Some articles cite our Alpha Score. Verify prices and figures against the original source. Educational coverage, not personalized advice.