
The rupee snapped its losing streak, rising 20 paise to 94.25, as Brent crude fell to $72 and foreign investors returned. Key support at 93.50-94.10, says Pabari. A break above 94.80 opens 95.30.
The rupee rose 20 paise to 94.25 against the dollar on Monday, recovering from its Thursday close of 94.45. The gain was helped by a slide in Brent crude to $72.51 a barrel and a pickup in foreign portfolio inflows, traders said. The currency opened at 94.36 and strengthened through early trade, snapping a run of losses that had pushed it to its weakest since March.
A sustained break above 94.80 would confirm the bullish setup, said Amit Pabari, managing director at CR Forex Advisors. The near-term support zone is 93.50–94.10, he said. The immediate headwind is the dollar itself, which held near a 13-month high at 101.37 on Monday.
The oil link matters because India imports the bulk of its crude, Pabari said. "Brent crude has slipped to around $72 per barrel, its lowest in four months, after falling more than 10% in just one week. Tankers are moving freely through the Strait of Hormuz again, and Gulf supply is returning to normal. For a country that imports most of its crude, this means a lighter import bill and softer dollar demand."
The Reserve Bank added $963 million to its foreign-exchange reserves in the week ended June 19, bringing the total to $672.587 billion. The increase reversed a steep $9.985 billion drop the prior week. Steady reserve accumulation shows the central bank is rebuilding its buffer after months of heavy dollar selling, Pabari noted.
On the equity side, the Sensex fell 63.65 points to 77,047.63 while the Nifty rose 16.55 points to 24,070.20. Foreign institutional investors bought a net $383.76 crore of equities on Thursday, exchange data showed.
Pabari said the rupee's next move depends on whether the dollar stays elevated and whether crude prices remain low. A drop below 94.10 would weaken the short-term bullish case, he said, while a break above 94.80 would open the path toward 95.30–95.50.
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