Robinhood Prediction Market Revenue May Surpass Crypto Trading

Robinhood's bet that event-contract trading could soon outpace its crypto revenue is gaining weight. Artemis, a research firm cited by analyst Crossroads, estimated the brokerage's prediction-market revenue at $123 million for the second quarter. The figure is based on 12.3 billion contracts traded through June 25 and a 1-cent take rate. That would put prediction markets within striking distance of Robinhood's first-quarter crypto transaction revenue of $134 million.

Crypto volumes improved somewhat in June, according to the report. Institutional activity carries lower take rates than retail trading. The comparison is not final until Robinhood reports second-quarter earnings. The estimates shift how investors may view the company, which has long been treated as a retail crypto proxy because trading booms in Bitcoin and Dogecoin flowed into its results. A larger contribution from event contracts makes that relationship less direct.

Robinhood launched its own blockchain network on July 1, deepening its crypto infrastructure. Robinhood Chain is an Ethereum layer-2 built on Arbitrum. It supports tokenized real-world assets, decentralized finance applications, and the company's tokenized stock ambitions. Stock Tokens are now available through Robinhood Wallet in more than 120 countries, though access varies by jurisdiction. Eligible users can trade tokenized equities around the clock and use them as collateral in lending pools. Robinhood also introduced Robinhood Earn, a decentralized lending product allowing eligible US users to lend USDG, its dollar-backed stablecoin, through a self-custody wallet. The product offers an estimated 7% annual percentage yield. It uses lending infrastructure powered by Morpho, with insurance from Lloyd's of London and RELM for covered losses tied to cyber or smart contract exploits. For context on tokenization risks, earlier this year a separate platform saw tokenized GOOGL positions inflated 78x due to a lending wrapper design flaw, as covered in AlphaScala's DeFi Lending's Wrapper Trap.

Prediction markets have grown despite legal and regulatory challenges. Robinhood offers event contracts through its partnership with Kalshi, a leading US platform in the category. CEO Vlad Tenev has described the company as near the beginning of a prediction-market cycle. Executives have pointed to a $500 million annual revenue run rate. Sports markets, including World Cup activity, helped drive the recent surge. That creates a durability test. Volumes tied to a major global event can fade after the tournament ends. Artemis argued that Kalshi's growth outside sports and Robinhood's distribution give the business a path beyond one event cycle.

Robinhood is also building its own prediction market infrastructure through Rothera, a platform tied to Robinhood and Susquehanna. Rothera is still small compared with Kalshi and Polymarket. It generated more than $900 million in volume over a recent one-week period. That gives Robinhood a potential route to operate more directly in the market rather than relying entirely on third-party venues. The company could route more of its own app-based event-contract activity through Rothera. A brokerage that controls both the consumer interface and more of the underlying market infrastructure can capture more of the economics, set pricing more aggressively, and use liquidity from one side to strengthen the other. That strategy mirrors the logic behind Robinhood Chain.

Robinhood's derivatives expansion in Europe shows another growth vector. The brokerage said commodity, ETF and foreign exchange perpetual futures are being rolled out to eligible European users. Assets include gold, silver, QQQ, EUR/USD, WTI crude and EWY. The products allow up to 10x leverage and around-the-clock trading. Bitstamp by Robinhood launched multi-asset perpetual futures for institutional clients, offering FX, equity indices, commodities and crypto from a single pool of capital. The offering uses a US dollar-settled account with unified collateral management, reference prices from Kaiko Benchmark Indices and matching technology from Nasdaq. Bitstamp by Robinhood operates as a MiFID II-authorized multilateral trading facility in Europe. The expansion gives Robinhood more ways to compete with crypto-native exchanges, traditional brokerages and derivatives venues. It also shows how the company is applying crypto-style trading mechanics to traditional asset classes.

Robinhood is also preparing to bring automation into crypto trading through Agentic Accounts for eligible US users. The tool allows users to connect AI models to Robinhood's trading infrastructure through its Trading MCP. The company said users retain control over the capital allocated and safety limits applied. AI agents can scan data and execute trades within those parameters. Robinhood has already introduced agentic trading for equities and options in the US. Extending the tool to crypto adds another layer to its plan to combine retail access, automation and multi-asset trading within a single platform. The risks are real: automated trading tools can magnify poor strategy design, weak risk controls and sudden market moves, particularly in crypto markets where liquidity and volatility shift quickly.

For investors, the test is whether these products can create durable revenue rather than periodic bursts tied to market cycles or major events. Robinhood's prediction-market revenue could top its crypto revenue as soon as this quarter. That would change the narrative. The regulatory path for event contracts remains unsettled, especially if the category expands beyond narrow financial and sports contracts. Europe's approach to stablecoins and crypto regulation, such as MiCA, could also shape the environment for Robinhood's onchain ambitions, as discussed in AlphaScala's Europe's MiCA Rethink Puts Stablecoin Rules in Play.