RIL shares have lost a third of their value in 2025. Friday's Q1 report from Jio, retail, and O2C will decide if the selloff pauses or deepens.
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Reliance Industries shareholders have seen ₹3.5 lakh crore in market value wiped out this year. The stock is down roughly 25% from its 52-week high, trailing the broader Nifty by a wide margin. Friday's first-quarter earnings report is the next chance to reverse the slide.
The selloff has been broad. The energy-to-telecom conglomerate has faced margin pressure in its oil-to-chemicals (O2C) segment, a slowdown in retail footfall growth, and rising capex in the telecom and new energy businesses. Jio's average revenue per user (ARPU) has been a key metric for analysts, and any miss there would add to the bear case.
For the June quarter, consensus estimates call for a modest sequential revenue increase, driven largely by the telecom arm. The O2C segment is expected to show some recovery in refining margins from the lows of the March quarter, though the global diesel and gasoline spreads remain volatile. Retail same-store sales growth is the other number to watch; the segment has been the company's most consistent growth engine over the past two years.
The stock's valuation has compressed. At roughly 22 times trailing earnings, RIL trades below its five-year average multiple. The question for Friday is whether the earnings beat or miss will be big enough to shift the narrative. A strong print from Jio and retail could stop the bleeding. A miss on either front would likely extend the losses.
The company reports after market close. The conference call with management is scheduled for Saturday morning.
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