Reliance shares barely moved after record Q1 EBITDA of ₹54,067 crore as retail investment pressure offset gains. Brokerages remain bullish, with re-rating hinging on Jio listing and new energy, analysts said.
Shares of Reliance Industries opened lower on Monday, then recovered. The stock traded at ₹1,327.70 on the NSE, up 0.04% from Friday's close. Volume was heavy at 55 lakh shares, valued at ₹740.85 crore, with sell orders accounting for nearly 70% of the order book. The muted reaction came after the company reported record quarterly earnings after Friday's session.
Reliance posted its highest-ever quarterly EBITDA of ₹54,067 crore for the June quarter, up 10.1% from a year ago. Net profit rose 6.1% to ₹23,196 crore. Revenue jumped 24.5% to ₹3,40,257 crore, driven by strong double-digit growth across the Oil-to-Chemicals (O2C), Jio Platforms, and retail businesses.
Brokerages were largely positive. Goldman Sachs, with a buy rating and a target price of ₹1,870, said O2C likely beat market expectations, rising 17% quarter-on-quarter despite elevated crude premiums and fuel marketing under-recoveries. The outlook into the second quarter looks more constructive, the bank said. Nomura called it a “record first quarter” with O2C EBITDA at a four-year high of ₹17,010 crore, reiterating a buy with a ₹1,690 target. CLSA, with an outperform rating and a ₹1,800 target, said consolidated EBITDA beat estimates by 3%, flagging strong momentum in FMCG and media. Macquarie flagged upside risk to consensus estimates for Jio and retail, with management targeting a doubling of retail EBITDA over three years.
The drag in the results came from Reliance Retail. EBITDA fell 1.1% year-on-year to ₹6,309 crore as the company ramped up investments in digital commerce and hyper-local delivery infrastructure. Management said the margin pressure is a deliberate near-term trade-off, with a three-year ambition to double operating EBITDA in the retail segment.
Jio Platforms posted revenue of ₹45,961 crore, up 12%. EBITDA grew 15.1% to ₹20,865 crore, and the EBITDA margin expanded 150 basis points to 53.3%. The telecom arm now has over 533 million subscribers, with 285 million on 5G.
The stock remains well below its 52-week high of ₹1,611.80 hit in January, down nearly 10% over the past year and over 15% year-to-date, underperforming the Nifty 50 on both counts. With the price-to-earnings ratio at 20.43 and total market capitalisation at ₹17.97 lakh crore, analysts said a re-rating may hinge on Jio's potential listing and clearer earnings visibility from new energy and retail.
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