Rain deficit inches up even as monsoon eyes East and North-East India

The uneven distribution has implications for India's edible oil import bill. India imports roughly 55% of its vegetable oil consumption, and a below-normal monsoon in the groundnut and soybean regions of Gujarat and Madhya Pradesh would keep import demand high. The Rain deficit in South Peninsula, where groundnut is a major crop, is the most acute. The IMD's forecast for the next six days shows isolated to scattered rain over Tamil Nadu, Karnataka, and Telangana, but not the widespread coverage needed to erase the deficit.

Food inflation remains a risk the Reserve Bank of India has flagged in its recent policy statements. The RBI's August monetary policy review noted that the monsoon's spatial distribution would be key to the inflation outlook. A bad monsoon in the south and west would push up prices of pulses, vegetables, and edible oils, economists at several research firms have said. The current rain pattern does not guarantee a reversal of the deficit, but it keeps the window open for recovery in the east and north-east.

On the west coast, the monsoon is active. Coastal Karnataka, Kerala and Mahe, and Lakshadweep are expected to get widespread rain for seven days. Heavy rain is likely to punctuate this spell, particularly over Tamil Nadu, Puducherry and Karaikal on Monday and Tuesday, and Kerala and Mahe for three days from Sunday. Konkan and Goa could see widespread rain for six days.

The northern plains and the western Himalayan region will see a mix of showers. Isolated heavy rain is possible on Saturday over Jammu and Kashmir–Ladakh, East Uttar Pradesh, Haryana, Chandigarh and Delhi, Himachal Pradesh and Punjab. Uttarakhand is the exception, with isolated heavy rain expected for six days.

The next key data point will be the weekly sowing report from the Ministry of Agriculture, due later this week, which will show whether the current rain has translated into higher planting acreage in the deficit regions. The report will be the first real test of whether the monsoon's late burst is enough to close the gap.