Polymarket gives Iran deal odds at 17% this month. Brent slid toward $94 as equities rallied. The 440 kg enriched uranium sticking point keeps traders skeptical.
The S&P 500 rose Thursday and the VIX touched 15.73, its lowest since January, after US and Iranian negotiators reportedly drafted a 60-day ceasefire extension and a framework for nuclear talks. The same session saw Brent crude slide toward $94 from above $107 in mid-May. Energy stocks – Exxon Mobil (XOM), Chevron (CVX), United States Oil Fund (USO) – reversed early gains.
That calm in equities faces a structural tension. The reported draft has not been signed by President Donald Trump or formally accepted by Tehran. Prediction markets see a very different probability distribution.
Polymarket gives the odds of a deal this month at 17%, up from 10% yesterday. A deal by June 30 sits at 41%, and one before 2027 at 76%. The contract for Strait of Hormuz traffic returning to normal carries a 38% probability by end-June, 59% by July, and 83% by December. Traders have placed $10.4 million on the June Hormuz contract alone.
The structure of these numbers tells a trader something the headline does not: even if a framework is signed, execution risk remains high. Earlier signs of progress have collapsed within hours before, and the market is pricing a non-negligible chance that this round also falls through.
| Contract | Probability |
|---|---|
| Deal this month | 17% (from 10%) |
| Deal by June 30 | 41% |
| Deal before 2027 | 76% |
| Hormuz normal by June 30 | 38% |
| Hormuz normal by July | 59% |
| Hormuz normal by December | 83% |
Any final deal requires Iran to dilute or ship abroad its roughly 440 kilograms of 60% enriched uranium – a step away from weapons-grade 90%. Trump said Wednesday he “wouldn’t be comfortable” with Russia or China holding the material.
The 440 kg figure is not simply a number. The International Atomic Energy Agency treats 60% enrichment as a short technical step from weapons-grade material. Shipping the stockpile abroad is the standard solution in past frameworks, limiting the destination to US-approved allies narrows the options and raises logistical cost. Polymarket’s 17% probability for a deal this month suggests the market sees this as a genuine hurdle, not a negotiating tactic.
Senators Ted Cruz (R-TX) , Lindsey Graham (R-SC) , and Roger Wicker (R-MS) say the emerging terms look too favorable to Tehran and too close to the Obama-era pact Trump once scrapped. Trump himself insists he will not be rushed, calling Iran “negotiating on fumes.”
The domestic political opposition matters because it reduces the administration’s incentive to compromise. Cruz, Graham, and Wicker each hold committee positions that can slow sanctions relief or raise scrutiny. Any deal that requires congressional buy-in or even silence faces a higher bar to implementation. The combination of executive-branch skepticism and Senate resistance is why prediction markets may remain stubbornly low even if reports of a framework sound concrete.
The Strait of Hormuz is the chokepoint for about 20% of the world’s oil transit. A ceasefire that keeps the strait open removes the most acute tail risk – a supply disruption that could send Brent above $120. That is why the VIX and oil fell together on the headline.
Practical rule: the glide path for energy equities depends on execution, not the draft. If Trump signs the 60-day extension and a clear uranium-handling plan emerges, XOM, CVX, and USO will likely underperform the broad market as contango narrows. The VIX could break below 15 for the first time since January. If the extension is signed but the nuclear talks stall again on the 440 kg issue, the strait stays open but the core conflict remains unresolved, keeping a high volatility floor under oil.
Among the directly affected stocks, XOM carries an Alpha Score of 50/100 (Mixed), CVX a 44/100 (Mixed), and USO a 40/100 (Mixed), per AlphaScala’s proprietary scoring. The scores reflect neutral positioning – neither strong conviction for a breakout nor signs of aggressive selling. Readers can track these names on their respective stock pages:
The Mixed labels mean the market has not decisively priced in either a deal or a collapse. That itself is a risk: the current calm in stocks and VIX may be a setup for a sharp move if the prediction markets are right to be skeptical.
The next concrete marker is Trump’s signature and Tehran’s formal response. Polymarket will update odds in real time, offering a better signal than any single headline. If the odds of a deal by month-end move above 30%, the sell-off in energy equities could accelerate. If they fall back below 10%, expect Brent to retest $100 and the VIX to climb back toward 18. Either way, the 440 kg of enriched uranium and the $10.4 million riding on Hormuz traffic will determine whether this ceasefire is a durable shift or another false start.
Prepared with AlphaScala research tooling and grounded in primary market data: live prices, fundamentals, SEC filings, hedge-fund holdings, and insider activity. Each story is checked against AlphaScala publishing rules before release. Educational coverage, not personalized advice.