Polymarket Odds Say SpaceX Will Top $2 Trillion on Debut

SpaceX will list on the Nasdaq on Friday, and traders on the Polymarket prediction platform are betting the stock surges on day one.

The Elon Musk-led rocket company is expected to price at $135 a share, giving it an initial market capitalization of $1.77 trillion. Traders see an 84% probability that the cap will close above $1.8 trillion, according to Polymarket data. The odds of surpassing $2 trillion stand at 69%.

A $2 trillion valuation would turn SpaceX into only the sixth U.S. company to cross that threshold. The others – Nvidia, Apple, Alphabet, Microsoft and Amazon – are the world's largest technology firms. At $1.77 trillion, SpaceX would already be worth more than Tesla, Musk's electric-vehicle company, which was valued at roughly $1.72 trillion late Thursday. A pop to $2 trillion would put SpaceX ahead of chip giant Broadcom, currently at $1.85 trillion.

Pre-IPO perpetual futures on Hyperliquid hint at an even bigger first-day move. Those contracts imply a gain of more than 20% from the expected IPO price. Polymarket traders give a less-than-50% chance that the market cap closes above $2.2 trillion, suggesting the $2 trillion level is the most likely upper boundary for the debut.

SpaceX's listing marks the largest U.S. IPO in years and will test whether the public market can absorb a company valued in the trillions on its first day. The debut also draws attention to the broader space economy. While listed peers such as Virgin Galactic and Rocket Lab trade at tiny fractions of SpaceX's expected size, a strong opening could lift sentiment across the sector.

Trading opens Friday at 9:30 a.m. Eastern.