Polymarket Gives CLARITY Act Just 21% Odds as Senate Punts to September

Prediction markets are pricing the CLARITY Act at 21% odds of becoming law. Polymarket traders have put more than $5.5 million behind that number. The contract covers the 616-page bill, formally H.R. 3633, which would split crypto regulatory oversight between the SEC and the CFTC.

The bill touches ethics, enforcement, custody rules, and stablecoin provisions. For U.S. exchanges, token issuers, and custodians, it would provide a federal framework. Without it, they operate under a patchwork of state laws and agency guidance that shifts with each administration.

Senate Majority Leader John Thune confirmed on August 6 that no vote would happen before the August recess. Democrats refused to support cloture without movement on open items, including ethics enforcement, stablecoin yield rules, and illicit finance provisions. The Senate filed a cloture motion on August 8, starting the procedural clock without settling the text.

The Senate returns September 14. The first cloture vote is scheduled for September 15. That gives lawmakers one day to resolve disputes that have been festering for months.

Senator Cynthia Lummis introduced updated language on July 22, trying to merge work from the Banking and Agriculture committees. It didn't hold. Opposition accelerated as the recess approached, and the window closed before any deal materialized.

Galaxy Research had been more optimistic earlier in the summer. On July 24, it cut its passage estimate from 50% down to 30%, citing unresolved disputes. The downgrade came before the political situation grew more complicated.

Democratic lawmakers have raised concerns about the ethics provisions. Their worry centers on language that could leave former President Donald Trump's existing crypto interests largely untouched. On August 5, committee staff identified five major loopholes, widening the critique to include securities law and consumer protections. The list of objections kept growing.