Polymarket bets see Anthropic IPO in October, not September. Traders give October an 81% probability as a federal court ruling and $30 trillion revenue claim boost the bullish case.
Crypto traders on the prediction platform Polymarket are betting that Anthropic will go public in October, not September, despite a flurry of speculation that the AI company could list as early as next month.
The market titled "In which month will Anthropic IPO?" gives October an 81% probability as of August 28, according to data Finbold retrieved from Polymarket. September stands at 16%. A separate market, "Anthropic IPO by __?", puts the odds of an IPO by October 15 at 73% and by October 31 at 91%. The odds for a December 31 IPO are only slightly higher at 93%.
The prediction market activity follows an August 27 report that Anthropic plans to unveil its prospectus after Labor Day, September 7, and go public later in September or early October. The timeline gained credibility after a federal court ruled on Thursday that the Pentagon acted illegally by labeling Anthropic a "supply chain risk" after the company refused to have its technology used in fully autonomous weapons systems. California federal judge Rita Lin said the label violated Anthropic's First Amendment rights and contradicted the Defense Department's own position that Anthropic is "essential to national security rather than a threat to it."
Alongside the ruling, reports emerged that Anthropic intends to claim $30 trillion in potential revenue, slightly above the total addressable market SpaceX claimed ahead of its own IPO. The company reportedly targets a $2 trillion valuation and plans to raise $100 billion.
The bullish narrative has its detractors. George Noble, a veteran investor, wrote on X that the IPO is a "rig job" between Anthropic and Nvidia to sustain the AI boom.
Nvidia, which carries an AlphaScala Alpha Score of 76 (Strong), has been heavily investing in firms that buy its own chips. It reportedly agreed to acquire Hugging Face for just under $13 billion days after the company struggled to find a buyer. Roughly 70% of Nvidia's accounts receivable balance is owed by just five clients, according to the report.
Anthropic remains the prime renter of AI compute, with contracts with both SpaceX and Meta, even as the narrative suggests no shortage of demand for data centers. Some observers argue the IPO could be an attempt to use retail investors as "exit liquidity" for early backers.
On the other side, Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang has compared investing in Anthropic, SpaceX, and OpenAI at their IPOs to early investments in Amazon, Meta, and Google. OpenAI CEO Sam Altman has said his firm will achieve artificial general intelligence by the end of 2026.
The prospectus is expected after Labor Day. No date has been set for the IPO.
Drafted by a large language model from the source reporting linked above, then screened by automated publishing checks. It is not read by a journalist before publication. Some articles cite our Alpha Score. Verify prices and figures against the original source. Educational coverage, not personalized advice.