
BPO firms now lease 52% of Metro Manila office space, up from 45%. Residential prices rose 4.5% YoY. Warehousing investment pushes beyond the capital.
The Philippine real estate sector grew 6.8% year-on-year in the first quarter of 2026, Lobien Realty Group reported at its mid-year briefing on July 9. The growth placed the sector third among the country's fastest-growing industries, behind public administration and defense at 12.7% and education at 10.1%. CEO Sheila Lobien pointed to strong housing demand, residential development, and property rental growth as the drivers.
"Real estate as a sector grew 6.8% year-on-year in the first quarter despite the headwinds – that's one of the clearest signs that demand fundamentals remain intact," Lobien said.
Business process outsourcing firms accounted for 52% of total office space leased in Metro Manila during the first quarter, up from 45% in the two preceding quarters. Lobien said BPOs are projected to hire 70,000 new employees in 2026, requiring at least 300,000 square meters of space. Traditional offices made up 34% of leasing, government agencies 10%, and other sectors 4%.
"The BPO industry at 52% – they're really the ones getting the available spaces out there," Lobien said. She noted that hybrid work arrangements have kept the sector from growing at pre-pandemic rates, demand remains steady.
Residential prices held up. The country's residential price index rose 4.5% year-on-year and 5.6% quarter-on-quarter. Metro Manila condominium prices jumped 13.2% from the previous quarter and 3.7% from a year earlier. A shift is underway: the balance Greater Manila Area – covering CALABARZON, Central Luzon, and nearby provinces – overtook the National Capital Region in residential loans granted, 40% to 29%. Lobien pointed to infrastructure projects, post-pandemic demand for larger homes, and lower property prices as drivers.
"The star here is the affordable and economic low-cost housing in the P2.5 million to P10 million range per unit," she said. The national housing backlog stands at 5.8 million homes, according to the Department of Human Settlements and Urban Development.
The Philippine warehousing market, valued at $441.7 million in 2025, is expected to grow at a 5.2% compound annual rate over the next eight years, Lobien Realty Group said. Occupiers are focusing on Batangas, Cavite, and Laguna. Clark and Central Luzon have emerged as the fastest-growing logistics hubs, benefiting from lower land costs and connectivity through expressways.
Lobien modeled three scenarios for the Middle East crisis and its impact on the sector. The base case, which carries a 50% probability, assumes a "fragile truce" that keeps GDP growth between 3.5% and 4.1%, inflation between 4.5% and 5.5%, the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas policy rate at 4.75% to 5%, and the peso at P59 to P61 against the dollar. Under that scenario, remittances from overseas Filipino workers in the Middle East stabilize, and the real estate sector performs close to 2025 levels through the end of 2026.
"Hopefully, inflation will be managed, and the interest rates will slowly go down," Lobien said.
One risk: a disruption to OFW remittances from the Middle East could pressure the residential market, which remains sensitive to mortgage rates and inflation. Even so, Lobien said real estate, particularly office and industrial, should remain a relative bright spot through year-end.
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