Swinging from a $30M loss to $54M profit, Par Pacific's distillate-heavy refining and new renewable fuels facility give analysts reason to expect more upside.
Alpha Score of 64 reflects moderate overall profile with strong momentum, strong value, weak quality, moderate sentiment.
Par Pacific reported Q1 results on May 5. The company swung from a $30.4 million loss to a $54.5 million profit. Net income hit $1.10 per diluted share, reversing a $0.57 per-share loss from a year earlier. Adjusted EBITDA reached $91.5 million, up from $10.1 million.
Record refining throughput in Hawaii drove the swing. Par Pacific processed 89,800 barrels per day at its Hawaii refinery. The company bought back $28 million of its own stock during the quarter at an average price of $37.96, a signal management saw value below $40.
Mizuho upgraded the stock to Outperform on May 27, raising its price target from $58 to $79. Analyst Nitin Kumar cited the Q1 results and a favorable distillate-driven margin environment. He also noted "optionality" from small refinery exemption-related benefits under the Renewable Fuel Standard. Mizuho's $79 target priced the stock at roughly 41% above where shares traded at the time.
The Q1 swing was not a one-off. Par Pacific's refining system is weighted toward distillates – diesel and jet fuel – more than most independent refiners, and those products' cracks ran well ahead of gasoline cracks in early 2026. The company's Hawaii asset base captured the spread.
A second revenue stream is now operating. Par Pacific's Hawaii renewable fuels facility started commercial operations in April. The plant can generate renewable identification number credits and low-carbon fuel standard credits in California and Oregon.
Shares traded near $56 in late June, up roughly 50% from six months earlier. The average analyst price target implies about 41% upside, though Mizuho's $79 call is the most aggressive. Consensus among other analysts has not yet moved to match.
Par Pacific set May 5 for its Q1 2026 earnings release. The company bought back $28 million of its own shares during the quarter. The average price was $37.96.
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