OPEC+ Tipped to Raise Quotas Again as Middle East Calms

Seven OPEC+ nations, including Saudi Arabia and Russia, are poised to increase oil production quotas for August, aiming to recover from disruptions caused by the Middle East war, analysts said.

The move comes after regional tensions eased, reducing the risk premium that had supported crude prices. Restarting shut-in production will take time, analysts said. The group's cohesion is at stake as members balance output discipline with market share.

Higher quotas could pressure oil prices, especially if demand growth slows. The gradual return to normal output levels may limit the downside. Traders are watching for signs of compliance among members.

The OPEC+ alliance has been managing supply since 2016. The pandemic and the war in Ukraine tested its unity. Now, with Middle East calm, the focus shifts to restoring output without crashing prices. For a deeper look at crude oil fundamentals, see the crude oil profile.

OPEC+ had cut output by 2 million barrels per day in 2023 to support prices, analysts noted. The planned increase would reverse some of those cuts. The seven nations include Saudi Arabia and Russia, along with other key producers.

The decision is expected to be formalized at the next OPEC+ meeting. Analysts said the quota increase would be phased in over several months. For broader commodities analysis, visit our commodities analysis page.