ONEOK Reaffirms 2026 Guidance, Flags NGL and Bakken Risks

ONEOK reaffirmed its 2026 EBITDA guidance during its second-quarter earnings call Tuesday, even as analysts questioned the company's exposure to NGL price compression and slowing Bakken activity.

CEO Pierce Norton said the company's integrated midstream model – gathering, processing, fractionation, and export – provides a buffer against individual commodity price swings. The integrated model offsets pressure in any single segment, he said.

Analysts on the call focused on the risk of NGL price compression as new fractionation capacity starts up later in 2026. Several asked whether soft ethane prices could force ONEOK to adjust its ethane rejection economics at the Mont Belvieu hub. The company's exposure to that hub is significant, BofA Securities analyst Jean Ann Salisbury noted.

CFO Walter Hulse said the company's leverage remains within its target range and the dividend is secure. The balance sheet is investment-grade, which provides flexibility to fund growth projects, he said.

Another risk theme was the pace of producer activity in the Williston Basin. ONEOK's volumes there have been steady. Some operators are shifting capital to the Permian, which could slow Bakken activity, several analysts said.

The company's Alpha Score of 57 out of 100, a Moderate label, reflects a balanced risk-reward within the Energy sector. The score measures momentum, valuation, and fundamental health. More details are on the OKE stock page.

The next catalyst for the stock is the analyst day planned for September, management said. That event will include an updated capital spending plan and a longer-term volume outlook.

The company's second-quarter earnings release, posted after market close Monday, showed adjusted EBITDA of $1.2 billion, slightly above consensus, according to the release. The dividend was reaffirmed.