Oil, tanker risks spike as US-Iran strikes pause and Houthis hit Saudi ports

The United States has paused its nightly strikes on Iran after nearly two weeks of bombardment, a shift that came as Iran-backed Houthi rebels escalated attacks on Saudi oil infrastructure. Houthi forces said Saturday they fired missiles and drones at facilities linked to Saudi Aramco in the Red Sea ports of Jizan and Yanbu. Saudi Arabia and Aramco did not immediately confirm the strikes. Emergency warnings in the area were briefly issued and later withdrawn.

The pause in US strikes has raised questions about the trajectory of the conflict. Iranian Oil Minister Mohsen Paknejad said Iran sold $11.5 billion worth of oil during the war and a further $6.5 billion during a ceasefire, when lower risks to tanker traffic helped increase exports and enabled the sale of part of around 100 million barrels of stored crude and gas condensate. The figures underscore how much Iran's oil revenue depends on the security of shipping lanes through the Persian Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz.

The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps warned Britain on Saturday that it could become a target if it extends support to the US. An IRGC spokesperson said any country, including Britain and Gulf states, that backs the US in the conflict would be considered a legitimate target. The spokesperson noted that US bombers had recently used British airfields.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy accused Russia of providing satellite intelligence to Iran to facilitate strikes on US military outposts and Gulf state facilities. In his evening address Saturday, Zelenskyy said Ukrainian intelligence has tracked active Russian satellite surveillance over US military bases and Gulf state infrastructure, with the data subsequently passed to Iran. He also said Moscow is preparing to receive 30,000 North Korean troops to bolster its forces.

Iran's Foreign Ministry condemned a Ukrainian attack on an Iranian commercial vessel in the Caspian Sea, warning of retaliatory consequences. The strike occurred early Saturday, triggering an explosion aboard the ship that killed one crew member and injured another, according to state media. Tehran called the attack a direct breach of Article 2(4) of the UN Charter and an act of aggression designed to destabilize the region. Kyiv had earlier confirmed long-range strikes targeting Russian military logistics and supply chains in the Caspian Sea.

What the shifts mean for markets