
Brent fell toward $84 after Trump said a deal with Iran would reopen the Strait of Hormuz. The agreement is not yet signed, leaving execution risk for June 19.
Oil dropped after President Donald Trump said a deal with Iran was complete and the Strait of Hormuz would reopen. Brent crude oil fell more than 3% toward $84 a barrel. West Texas Intermediate traded near $81. Trump posted he was authorizing the “toll free opening” of Hormuz and ending a blockade of Iran-linked vessels. “Ships of the World, start your engines,” he wrote. “Let the oil flow!”
Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif said the agreement would be signed in Switzerland on June 19. Iran Deputy Foreign Minister Kazem Gharibabadi confirmed the deal and said the text of the memorandum would be published after the signing. The agreement includes an end to military operations in Lebanon, a key sticking point for Iran.
The Strait of Hormuz carried roughly a fifth of global oil flows before the conflict began in late February, when the US and Israel attacked Iran to curb its nuclear program. Tehran shut the chokepoint and struck across the Persian Gulf. US forces imposed their own blockade of Iran-linked vessels. Prices spiked at first. Over recent weeks, they drifted lower. Signals of a deal mounted during that period. Some crude flows via the strait had already resumed. Developed economies tapped emergency crude reserves. China, a big importer, scaled back imports.
European natural gas futures tumbled as much as 5.8% on the news.
The agreement is not yet signed. The blockade remains in place legally until June 19. A deal can still fall apart between the announcement and the signature. Lebanon’s role in the talks has been a sticking point. Traders front-ran the headlines. The selloff was already partially priced into the weeks of decline before Trump’s post. The 3% drop on the news might be the last easy leg down.
Tankers idling outside the strait could move through quickly once the blockade lifts. That would add supply to a market that has already adjusted to lower flows. The question is whether the physical delivery can ramp up smoothly and whether Iran’s production capacity has been affected by the conflict. Neither answer is clear yet.
For crude oil traders, the simple read is that supply is about to hit the market. The better market read is that the supply was already priced in. The remaining risk is execution risk on the deal date. Watch the June 19 signing, not today’s spot move.
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