Oil Rises as Houthi Blockade Threat Tests Bab al-Mandab Chokepoint

WTI crude pushed above $84 a barrel Tuesday as traders weighed the Houthi movement's announcement that it would impose a maritime blockade on Saudi Arabia, a threat that puts the Bab al-Mandab Strait – a chokepoint for roughly 6 million barrels of daily crude transit – back in play as a risk factor for global supply.

Brent crude settled above its 50-day moving average at $88.11, climbing toward the $90.50–$91.00 resistance zone. The rally extends a week of gains driven by mounting geopolitical tension in the Middle East, where the Houthis – key allies of Iran – claimed they were attacked by Saudi forces before announcing the blockade.

The group does not have significant naval firepower, analysts note. Its drone capability, however, could target vessels transiting the strait without sinking them and still cause enough disruption to rattle a market already running on thin inventories. Global oil reserves have declined this year, leaving less buffer for any loss of cargoes. A single successful attack on a tanker would likely trigger a sharp price spike, several traders said.

The Houthi announcement follows a drone strike that killed three U.S. soldiers in Jordan. President Trump said Iran would "pay for that killing many times over." Mediators from Qatar and Pakistan are working to return the U.S. and Iran to conditions under a memorandum of understanding, the Houthis' statement complicates those efforts.

Natural gas, by contrast, is losing ground. Freeport LNG will remain in maintenance through August, removing a key source of export demand. The nearest support level sits in the $2.75–$2.80 range. A break below $2.75 would open the path toward $2.50–$2.55. On the upside, gas needs to clear $2.90 to gain near-term momentum toward the $3.00–$3.05 resistance zone.

For WTI, the technical picture is constructive. The contract is testing its 50-day moving average at $84.14. A clean break above that level targets $86.00–$86.50, with the next ceiling at $91.50–$92.00. On the downside, support sits at $83.00. A move below that opens the path toward the $80.00–$80.50 floor.

Brent's RSI remains in neutral territory, leaving room for further gains. A break above $91.00 points toward $95.00–$95.50. Below the 50 MA at $88.11, the nearest support is $86.00–$86.50.