Oil Holds Decline as Trump Vows to Reopen Hormuz Within Days

"As long as there are these openings to move barrels around, I think this on-off can continue," said Carolyn Kissane, associate dean at New York University's Center for Global Affairs. "Iran doesn't want to escalate does want to keep up the tension, and there will be more attacks after this market retreat. We have been here before."

Commodity shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, which carried about a fifth of the world's crude oil and liquefied natural gas before the war, have slowed to a trickle. The key Saudi export port of Yanbu in the Red Sea appeared to have its busiest day since Houthi threats upended shipping in the region, as more ships transited dark through the Bab el-Mandeb chokepoint.

Saudi Arabia's observed crude exports edged lower in July. Threats to vessel traffic in the Persian Gulf and Red Sea held back the kingdom's shipments. Exports totaled 4.19 million barrels a day, according to tanker-tracking data compiled by Bloomberg, 460,000 barrels a day lower than the previous month.

With global energy markets under pressure from the Iran war, Ukraine's shifting strikes across Russia's oil supply chain add risk of further disruptions. Large refineries, oil tankers, and sea and major pipeline infrastructure were hit at least 30 times in July, the second-highest monthly number of strikes since Russia's full-scale invasion in 2022.

In recent days, four tankers have completed loadings at the Caspian Pipeline Consortium terminal, a Black Sea port on Russia's coast crucial to Kazakhstan's crude exports. Recent attacks on oil tankers in the area have made some vessel owners cautious about loading there.