Commodities● Neutral
Oil, Gold Hold Gains as Middle East Tensions Escalate
Oil extends gains for a third session as Middle East ceasefire hopes fade and Iran signals a more offensive stance. Gold holds near $4,400 on a weaker dollar and reduced rate-hike expectations. The Fed minutes and Warsh's remarks are the next catalysts.
Continue with
Oil prices rose for a third straight session as hopes for a Middle East ceasefire faded. Iran signaled it could adopt a more offensive military posture, and the U.S. ruled out extending the temporary truce. Progress on reopening the Strait of Hormuz has stalled, with tanker traffic still limited. A vessel was struck by a projectile while leaving the strait, and Houthi militants reported attacks on vessels in the Red Sea. Iran's separate talks with Oman over managing the strait remain unresolved, adding to uncertainty over regional oil flows. Traders are also watching U.S. oil inventory data this week, after a surprise rise in stockpiles last week.
Crude oil traded above $85 a barrel, testing the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level. The price is above both the 50-day and 100-day simple moving averages, a pattern some traders read as a short-term bullish signal. The stochastic oscillator has moved into deeply overbought territory, a condition that has often preceded pullbacks. The Bollinger Bands have widened slightly, reflecting elevated volatility. A decisive break above $85 could open the way toward the $90–$92 area, while a rejection could send prices back toward $82 and $80, traders said.