Oil buffers spent after Hormuz closure, IMF warns

By the end of May, more than 1.1 billion barrels of crude had not reached the market. That is equivalent to about 10 days of typical global consumption. At the same stage of the disruption, the shortfall exceeded those of the 1973 oil shock, the Iran-Iraq war and the Gulf War, the IMF said.

Producers like Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates redirected what they could through alternative pipelines and ports. Those workarounds offset only a fraction of the lost volumes.

A recent U.S.-Iran framework agreement to reopen the strait sent prices lower as stranded oil on tankers could rapidly return to the market. Still, the IMF estimates it will take two to three months for a significant share of oil flows to resume after a full reopening. Prolonged halts could cause permanent output losses, the fund said.

"Whenever supply begins to recover, the oil deficit will close only gradually, drawing inventories closer to operational minimums," the blog stated. "That is the level below which the physical system itself begins to bind."

The IMF highlighted three lessons for global policymakers. Rebuilding inventories remains essential to prepare for future supply shocks. Relying on a single chokepoint leaves the global economy heavily exposed, making the diversification of both energy routes and sources vital. Government support to consumers must remain targeted to the most vulnerable and temporary to protect budgets while preserving the price signals that encourage energy efficiency.

The warning comes as the market faces a thinner buffer than at any point since the disruption began. Spare capacity has been deployed. Demand has compressed. Inventories have been drawn down. The next shock, the IMF said, will hit a system with far less room to absorb it.