Oil and Natural Gas: Inventory Draw Meets OPEC+ Supply Hike

Brent crude changed hands near $83.76, pulling back from a high of $84.12 and breaking below the 0.50 Fibonacci level at $84.07. Sellers have reasserted dominance after the sharp rally from July lows, though price has held above the 0.382 Fibonacci level at $80.77, which continues to offer support.

Brent trades below both the 50-period EMA at $85.10 and the 100-period EMA at $86.40, keeping the broader downtrend intact. The RSI is around 54, indicating neither buyers nor sellers have a decisive edge. Resistance is at $84.12 and $87.34. A break below $80.77 could open the door to $76.68.

Natural gas prices were little changed near $2.86, oscillating in a tight range between $2.85 and $2.94. The EIA reported a 41 Bcf injection into storage for the week to July 10, in line with expectations. Lower 48 production averaged 110.3 Bcf per day in July.

Rising LNG exports and growing power demand from data centers continue to support longer-term consumption prospects. Near-term price action remains directionless. Natural gas trades below the 50-period EMA at $2.92 and the 100-period EMA at $2.99, with a descending trendline capping upside attempts.

Resistance is at $2.94 (0.236 Fibonacci) and $3.00. Support is at $2.85. The RSI has slipped from 50 to around 42, reflecting weak buying interest but remaining above oversold territory. A move below $2.85 could open the way to $2.76.

For traders watching natural gas, the lack of a catalyst keeps the range intact. A similar pattern played out in recent weeks, as detailed in Natural Gas: 207K Shorts Face Heat Test as Front-Month Holds Support. The same support and resistance levels remain in play.