Commodities▲ Bullish
Oil and Natural Gas Consolidate as Supply Risks Persist
Crude and gas prices remain capped as Gulf output lags pre-war levels, analysts said, with natural gas testing channel support and oil failing to break above key moving averages.
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Crude oil and natural gas prices are consolidating as the incomplete recovery of flows through the Strait of Hormuz continues to constrain global supply, analysts said.
The Strait of Hormuz remains the central bottleneck.
Tanker traffic and production in the Gulf remain below pre-conflict levels despite some diplomatic progress and partial reopenings. Global inventories have been drawn down, and strategic petroleum reserves in major consuming countries are depleted. The International Energy Agency expects global LNG supply to plateau by 2026 as new production from North America and Africa offsets Gulf losses. In the short term, the pace of transit normalization in the Middle East and demand responses in large importing countries will determine the price path.
Natural gas is consolidating around $2.75, the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement and the lower boundary of a rising channel. The price sits below the 50- and 100-period exponential moving averages, at $2.753 and $2.765. The RSI is neutral. Analyst Arslan, who holds an MPhil in behavioral finance, said a breakout from the channel is typical at this compression point.