Nvidia's CFO issued first-time FY28 guidance, pushing shares 5% higher. July PCE came in slightly hot. GDP stalled at 1.5%. Warsh speaks Friday.
Alpha Score of 73 reflects strong overall profile with strong momentum, weak value, strong quality, strong sentiment.
A rare full-year revenue forecast from Nvidia pushed shares 5% higher in after-hours trade, while a sticky July inflation print and stalling US growth kept the Federal Reserve's policy path uncertain on the eve of Chairman Kevin Warsh's Jackson Hole speech.
Nvidia's fiscal second-quarter revenue reached $96.2 billion, above the $92 billion consensus. Data-centre revenue of $89 billion rose 117% from a year ago, topping analyst estimates. The surprise came from CFO Colette Kress, who on the earnings call offered fiscal 2028 guidance for the first time. Kress said revenue would increase about 70% in the coming year, well above the roughly 45% the Street had expected. The stock initially sold off on margin concerns but recovered to $220 in extended trading.
The July personal consumption expenditures price index landed with headline PCE at 0.2% month on month and 3.7% year on year, slightly above forecasts. Core PCE met expectations at 0.2% monthly and 3.3% annually. The year-on-year headline figure is down from 4.1% in May but remains nearly double the Fed's 2% target.
US GDP growth is slowing. The second estimate for second-quarter output held at 1.5%, matching consensus and running below the pace of a year earlier. The central bank faces slowing growth alongside elevated price pressures, a combination that limits both easing and tightening options. According to FP Markets Chief Market Analyst Aaron Hill, the PCE report changed little from a policy perspective, it is neither hot enough to force immediate tightening nor soft enough to justify a cut.
Markets still raised their hawkish bets modestly after the data. Fed funds futures priced 9 basis points for September, 16 for October and 22 for the full year through December. Recent Fed commentary has shown a clear division among officials, Hill noted.
Asia's equity markets took early bids from the Nvidia news but gave back most gains by the close. European and US futures are mixed, the former modestly higher and the latter slightly lower. The Nvidia results drove a limited read-through across regional indices, with most of the early bullish momentum fading into the session end.
Oil prices remain subdued. West Texas Intermediate trades at $77.84 a barrel, Brent at $82.83, both hovering just above their 200-day simple moving averages. A mix of vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz and an interim revenue-sharing agreement between Iran and Oman have eased some supply fears. The US is not part of those talks. While strikes between Iran and the US have declined, President Trump said the Strait is clear of mines, but the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps denied the claim, saying only Iranian members know the mine locations.
Jackson Hole's official program begins today. The main event is Warsh's speech on Friday morning. Hill said it is unlikely to give markets much to work with given the policy bind the Fed faces.
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