NIQ Beats Q2 Estimates, Raises Full-Year Guidance on AI Tool Demand

NIQ Global Intelligence plc beat Wall Street estimates for its fiscal second quarter and lifted its full-year earnings and revenue forecast, driven by faster adoption of AI-powered analytics tools among the world's biggest consumer goods companies.

Revenue for the three months through July hit $1.08 billion, up 9% from a year earlier and roughly $20 million above the consensus analyst estimate. Adjusted earnings per share came in at $1.24, topping the $1.17 average forecast. The stock rose 5.6% in after-hours trading, CEO James Peck said on the earnings call Monday.

NIQ now expects fiscal 2026 adjusted EPS of $5.02 to $5.08, up from a prior range of $4.82 to $4.96. It sees revenue of $4.28 billion to $4.35 billion, compared with a previous $4.18 billion to $4.30 billion.

“Our differentiated data and AI-led workflow tools are driving deeper client relationships and expanding wallet share,” Peck said. He pointed to a suite of predictive analytics products NIQ launched in April that blend point-of-sale scanner data with consumer panel insights. The products are priced at a premium to standard offerings and have been adopted by nine of the world’s 10 largest consumer packaged goods companies, Peck said.

Revenue from the technology and analytics segment, which includes these new tools, grew 14% year-over-year to $572 million. The more mature retail measurement services segment rose 5% to $508 million.

Adjusted operating margin widened to 27.8% from 26.2% in the year-ago period. CFO Michael Burwell attributed the improvement to higher-margin software revenue and “continued cost discipline” in the legacy data collection business.

Management kept its fiscal 2026 capital expenditure forecast at roughly $380 million, with most of the spending earmarked for cloud infrastructure and AI model training. Burwell said free cash flow of $312 million in the first half left the company “well-positioned” to invest organically rather than rely on debt or equity financing.

NIQ faces renewed competitive pressure from Circana and from Amazon.com Inc.’s growing sell-side analytics business. Peck argued the company’s global panel – covering 1.7 million households across 40 countries – gives it a structural advantage in building predictive models. “You can’t train these models without the underlying transaction data, and no one has more of that than we do,” he said.

For the fiscal third quarter, NIQ guided revenue of $1.04 billion to $1.07 billion and adjusted EPS of $1.06 to $1.10. Consensus calls for $1.05 billion and $1.07, respectively.

The company will hold its annual investor day on Sept. 24 in New York. Peck said he planned to provide a “multi-year technology roadmap” at the event.