Nifty flat as crude, rupee pressure offset IT gains

Markets ended Thursday's session virtually unchanged, masking a day of sharp intraday swings driven by geopolitical anxiety, a weakening rupee, and elevated crude oil prices. The session was further complicated by the weekly Sensex expiry, which amplified volatility across the board.

The Nifty 50 settled at 24,072.75, down just 5.75 points or 0.02 per cent, after swinging between an intraday high of 24,186.50 and a low of 24,050. The BSE Sensex closed at 77,186.87, up a marginal 1.40 points, having touched a high of 77,579.69 and a low of 77,086.42 during the session. The Bank Nifty ended weaker, falling 175.60 points or 0.30 per cent to 57,582.25, as private banks sat out the recovery while select PSU banking names cushioned the fall.

“Markets remained volatile in the narrow range on the weekly expiry day and closed flat, extending the ongoing consolidation phase,” said Ajit Mishra, SVP Research at Religare Broking. “Sectoral trends were mixed, IT, auto and FMCG supported the move, while realty, metal and banking stocks traded under pressure.”

The broader market fared worse. The Nifty Midcap 100 declined around 0.4-0.5 per cent and the Nifty Smallcap 100 fell 0.1-0.3 per cent, reflecting a cautious undertone beyond the headline indices. Sectorally, Consumer Durables, IT, Chemicals, and Media were the standout gainers, with the Electronics Manufacturing Services index rising roughly 3.2 per cent for the second straight session after the Union Cabinet approved the second phase of the India Semiconductor Mission with an outlay of approximately ₹1.27 lakh crore. On the losing side, Realty, Banking, Financial Services, PSU Banks, Capital Markets, and Metals faced selling pressure.

Among individual stocks, HCL Tech, Wipro, IndiGo, and Maruti Suzuki led gains, while BEL, Bajaj Finserv, Eternal, and HDFC Bank were among the notable laggards.

The Indian rupee extended its losing streak into a fourth consecutive session, pressured by a widening current account deficit, fading RBI support measures, and tepid response to FCNR schemes amid rising global bond yields. Geopolitical friction between the US and Iran pushed Brent crude above $85 per barrel, compounding the pressure on the currency. Spot USDINR faces resistance at 96.50 with support at 95.85.

On the commodity front, MCX Gold opened with a gap down at ₹1,41,031, weighed down by fears that surging oil prices could delay interest rate cuts. MCX Silver also opened lower at ₹2,19,794. MCX Crude Oil futures held firm near ₹7,684, supported by reports that the US carried out fresh airstrikes on Iranian missile facilities, with President Trump reportedly considering expanding military operations.

Global sentiment provided bleak comfort, with Japan's Nikkei falling 2.8 per cent and South Korea's Kospi tumbling 6.4 per cent. US Federal Reserve officials maintained a cautious tone on rate cuts, citing persistent inflation risks, particularly from energy prices. US crude inventories fell 1.7 million barrels last week, tighter than market expectations, keeping supply concerns alive.

Markets are likely to take cues from the ongoing Q1FY27 earnings season, with results from Reliance Industries, JSW Steel, Hindustan Zinc, and RBL Bank due Friday. Wipro and Tech Mahindra numbers, released Thursday evening, will set the early tone for IT. Analysts expect the Nifty to remain range-bound between 23,800 and 24,350 in the near term, with a breakout above 24,350 needed to open the door toward 24,600, the April 2026 high, while a slip below 24,000 could accelerate selling toward 23,800.