
Natural gas futures test the $3 mark as the 50-day EMA holds, with Middle East tensions and European demand propping up prices despite a seasonally weak period.
Natural gas futures tested the $3 level again Thursday, with the 50-day EMA holding as resistance for the third session this week. The front-month contract traded near $2.98, up 0.8% on the day.
The $3 mark has been a psychological barrier since late June. The 50-day EMA sits just above the round number, reinforcing the level. The 200-day EMA, a longer-term trend indicator, stands near $3.22, a level not tested since April.
The rally comes as Middle East supply risks and European demand concerns support prices. European natural gas benchmarks have spiked, and any disruption in Qatari LNG flows would tighten the global market, spilling into Henry Hub. Qatar ships LNG to Europe and Asia. An interruption would force European buyers to compete for US cargoes, lifting Henry Hub prices.
Seasonal factors remain a drag on prices. Summer demand is soft, with mild temperatures across much of the US. The natural gas market typically sees its weakest demand during the shoulder months of spring and early fall. Traders said the current price action is unusual for this time of year, partly because of the geopolitical premium tied to the Middle East conflict.
The latest COT data showed 207K net short contracts held by speculators. A break above $3 and the 50-day EMA could trigger a squeeze, adding to upward momentum. A separate analysis of natural gas positioning outlines the risk for those short positions if support holds.
The 200-day EMA at $3.22 is the next target if the 50-day EMA gives way. The market is now looking for a weekly close above $3 to confirm the breakout.
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