
Natural gas futures gapped lower Monday as Middle East tensions eased, with the market testing $2.75 support ahead of the September contract rollover. Supply levels remain high.
Natural gas futures gapped lower Monday, with the front-month contract trading near the $2.75 support level. Middle East tensions eased over the weekend, reducing the risk premium that had supported prices in prior sessions.
Chris, a proprietary trader and senior analyst at FXEmpire, said the move reflected a combination of geopolitical easing and persistent seasonal weakness. "This time of year is typically not very strong for natural gas," he said. Supply levels remain elevated, with storage inventories well above seasonal averages, limiting any upside from the recent heat wave across parts of the United States.
The $2.75 level has been a key support area in recent trading. Chris said a break below that could open the door to further declines. The market is also approaching the expiration of the current front-month contract, with rollover to the September contract scheduled for Wednesday. That shift could introduce additional volatility as traders adjust positions.
Chris noted that while the worst of the seasonal demand trough may be behind, true demand from heating season is still months away. Short-term rallies are likely to attract selling pressure, he added, given the ample supply and lack of a near-term catalyst. The market is in a typical summer pattern: range-bound with a bearish bias, waiting for the transition to autumn.
For more on natural gas positioning, see Natural Gas: 207K Shorts Face Heat Test as Front-Month Holds Support.
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