Natural Gas Stuck in Seasonal Lull as Supply Overhang Weighs

Storage data tells the story. Inventories remain well above the five-year average for this point in the season, and the surplus has been slow to erode. The Energy Information Administration's weekly storage report has consistently shown builds matching or exceeding historical norms, keeping the supply overhang front and center for traders.

The contract roll to October later this month will shift the focus to autumn, when the market starts pricing winter heating demand. But that transition is still weeks away. For now, the path of least resistance remains lower, with the $2.50 area the next major support level to watch.

A sustained move above the 50-day EMA would be the first technical signal that the seasonal floor is in. Until then, the market is caught between modest production cuts announced by some producers and the sheer volume of gas already in the ground.

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