
Natural gas slipped 0.8% as a 57 bcf storage injection topped the five-year average and mild weather delayed seasonal demand. The $2.50 support level is in focus.
Natural gas prices edged lower Monday, extending a stretch of weakness as storage surpluses and tepid weather-related demand kept the market oversupplied.
Front-month futures slipped 0.8% to $2.72 per million British thermal units, near the lower end of the range that has held since early September. The market has shed roughly 12% from late-August highs as a persistent storage build outpaced consumption.
The U.S. Energy Information Administration reported a 57-billion-cubic-foot injection into storage for the week ended Sept. 20, above the five-year average of 49 bcf. Total working gas in storage stood at 3.47 trillion cubic feet, about 6% above the five-year seasonal norm.
Mild temperatures across most of the Lower 48 through the first half of October have capped cooling demand, while heating demand has yet to ramp up. Forecast models show above-average temperatures persisting across the eastern half of the country into mid-October, delaying the seasonal demand pickup.
On the supply side, dry gas production has held near 102 bcf per day, roughly flat from August levels. The Permian Basin and Appalachia continue to flow at elevated rates, with no major maintenance events expected in the near term.
Qatar's ability to supply European buyers this winter has also reduced the need for U.S. LNG cargoes to fill the gap, traders said. U.S. LNG feedgas flows have averaged about 12.5 bcf per day in September, down from 13.2 bcf in August, as European storage sits near 94% full.
The $2.50 level has acted as support in recent sessions, with buyers stepping in near that mark. A break below that level would open the door to the August low near $2.35. On the upside, resistance sits at the 50-day moving average near $2.90, with the $3.00 psychological level above that.
Traders said the market remains range-bound until a clear weather catalyst emerges. The next weekly storage report, due Thursday, is expected to show another above-average build.
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