
Natural gas failed to clear $2.83 resistance, with the pullback testing $2.62 support. Bruce sees a decisive move above $2.83 as the next catalyst for a bullish reversal.
Natural gas slipped to a three-day low of $2.71 Thursday after failing to clear the $2.83 resistance zone. The daily range – a lower high of $2.80 and a lower low – pointed to additional downside, according to Bruce, a CMT charter holder with over 20 years of experience.
Bruce said the inability to close above $2.83 kept the broader downtrend intact. That level, along with the 20-day moving average near $2.81, has capped advances for several sessions. Wednesday’s swing high of $2.83 was the latest attempt to trigger a bullish reversal signal, but it didn't confirm with a daily close above.
The failure doesn't rule out a later breakout. Bruce noted that another push above $2.83 could still succeed, especially after a pullback shakes out weak longs. If prices recover that swing high, a bullish reversal signal would activate, opening a path toward falling moving-average resistance.
Above $2.83, the next challenge sits at the 100-day moving average of $2.92, which acted as resistance in July. The 50-day moving average near $3.01 is also declining faster than the 100-day, narrowing the resistance band. Bruce warned that any advance inside a larger downtrend is likely to stall near those averages, potentially completing a counter-trend rally and sending prices back toward the $2.62 low.
Until a decisive move above $2.83 appears, the downside scenario remains the base case. Bruce highlighted $2.62 as the key support level to watch. A break below that would mark a new leg lower.
For more on positioning in natural gas, see our earlier coverage of 207K shorts facing a heat test.
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