Natural Gas Price Forecast: Bearish Trend Targets Key Support

Natural gas traded inside Thursday's range on Friday and closed in the upper third of the session, after a lower high at $2.69 met resistance at the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement of the most recent advance. That interaction flipped the level from support to resistance, a shift the technical forecaster reads as bearish. The day's low near $2.62 tested the same price zone for a second consecutive session, a level that matches the August 2025 low which preceded the continuation of the bull trend.

The bearish setup hardened on Tuesday, when natural gas broke down from a bearish flag pattern and later closed below the prior trend low of $2.64. The current falling channel shows Friday's high testing the downtrend line at the upper boundary, and the bearish response from that line points to additional downside, especially given the steepness of the channel, according to Bruce, a CMT charter holder and former hedge fund trading strategist who publishes the natural gas forecast.

The flag formation yields a measured downside target near $2.54, a price that also aligns with the midline of the falling channel. That confluence turns $2.54 into the more significant support zone on the chart, compared with the $2.62 area that has held for the past two sessions. The 88.6% Fibonacci retracement of the recent advance, near $2.60, adds another layer of support in the same region.

Bruce said the falling channel and the $2.54 target suggest selling pressure may subside near that level, even though Friday's pause does not yet signal a reversal. The $2.62 support and the $2.54 measured target sit below Friday's close.

For context on speculative positioning in the market, see the Natural Gas: 207K Shorts Face Heat Test as Front-Month Holds Support analysis.