
Natural gas hovers near $2.50 support as supply stays abundant and no heatwave emerges. The Fed decision may cause a tremor, but seasonal weakness persists, FXEmpire's Chris says.
Natural gas futures stalled near the $2.50 support level Wednesday. Abundant supply and the absence of a heatwave are weighing on prices, said Chris, a senior analyst at FXEmpire.
The front-month contract is rolling over into September, a period that typically sees weak demand before winter, Chris noted. The market is in the softest part of the year for natural gas consumption, and no heatwave is forecast to draw down inventories.
Supply remains extraordinarily high, he said. That abundance makes any sustained rally unlikely unless a demand shock appears. Short-term bounces could come from a heatwave, Chris added, but even those would likely be capped by the seasonal oversupply.
The $2.50 level has held as a floor in recent sessions. A break below that would open the door to further losses, though Chris said the downside seems limited after the recent decline. To the upside, a move above $3 would be a clear bullish signal, but the same oversupply problem would make such a rally tough to maintain this time of year.
The Federal Reserve decision due later Wednesday could inject a tremor into the market, Chris said. Any shift in rate expectations might ripple through the dollar and energy demand forecasts, but the fundamental supply-demand picture remains the dominant factor.
Traders watching the support level can track positioning to gauge whether short sellers are building or covering.
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