Natural Gas Holds $2.80 Support; Traders Watch for Reversal

Upside targets beyond $2.93 include the $2.98 swing low from May and the $3.06 level from late June. The more important barrier sits at the 50-day moving average, now near $3.13, which had served as support during the prior advance before flipping to resistance. That area also aligns with the $3.16 daily high from July 9, the point where the broadening formation broke down two weeks ago. A successful retest of that zone would complete what Bruce described as a standard pullback and likely set up another leg lower in the broader bearish trend that started with the lower high at $3.42 in early June.

The support zone matters for the broader gas market because it has held despite a series of bearish storage prints and fluctuating Freeport LNG export flows. If the floor holds through Thursday's weekly EIA storage report, the odds of a bounce toward $3.00 rise, Bruce said. A larger-than-expected build, however, could crack the level and accelerate the decline toward the $2.60 area.

The next scheduled catalyst is the EIA's weekly storage report due on Thursday at 10:30 a.m. ET.