Natural Gas Holds $2.80-$3.00 Range, Europe Rally Detached

European natural gas futures have rallied roughly 50% in the past month on concerns about storage levels and Russian supply. The US contract hasn't budged. The rally has not spilled into the domestic market, traders said, because LNG export flows have not yet shifted to capture the arbitrage.

Mid-summer is typically a quiet period for US gas. Traders said the range is driven by domestic supply-demand fundamentals that remain separate from the European dynamics for now.

A sustained break above $3.00 would require a catalyst from the export side, which has not emerged, traders said.