
Natural gas holds above $2.64 support after EIA reports 2.5M barrel inventory build. WTI crude consolidates near $75. OPEC+ confirms September output increase. NFP data in focus.
The U.S. Energy Information Administration reported a 2.5 million-barrel build in commercial crude inventories for the week ended July 31, defying analyst expectations of a 1.2 million-barrel draw. Stockpiles now stand at 407 million barrels, roughly 6% below the five-year average. OPEC+ confirmed a 188,000-barrel-per-day production increase for September, completing the unwind of the 1.65 million bpd voluntary cuts introduced in 2023. The group left its fourth-quarter strategy undecided while members review production capacity ahead of 2027 quota deadlines.
Natural gas futures settled near $2.69, holding above the $2.64-$2.66 support zone after repeated tests. The 50-day exponential moving average at $2.76 and the 100-day EMA at $2.84 slope downward, reinforcing the bearish trend. Relative strength index at 43 points to weak momentum. A move above $2.74 would mark the first bullish reversal signal, traders said. Until the descending trendline at $2.76 and the 100-EMA at $2.84 give way, the technical outlook remains negative. The EIA expects U.S. LNG exports to average 17.2 Bcf/d in 2026, supported by new capacity and international demand. Read more: Natural Gas: 207K Shorts Face Heat Test as Front-Month Holds Support.
WTI crude consolidated near $75.46 after breaking below the $77.80-$76.80 support zone, which now acts as resistance. Price sits below both the 50-EMA at $78.09 and the 100-EMA at $80.00, confirming the short-term downtrend. RSI recovered to 43, still indicating seller control. A sustained move above $77.80 would signal a recovery toward $81.25. Failure to reclaim that level could open a path to $74.20 and $72.25, traders said.
Brent crude traded at $79.70, attempting to stabilize after a selloff. Price holds just above a rising trendline at $78.30. It remains below the 50-EMA at $84.08 and the 100-EMA at $84.82. Repeated rejection from $82.20 has shifted momentum to sellers, with $82.20-$83.00 as the first major resistance. RSI near 39 suggests easing momentum. A break below $78.30 could expose $76.00 and $75.10. A move above $82.20 would signal buyer control, traders said.
Investors now turn to the July nonfarm payrolls report. Economists expect 95,000 jobs added, down from 121,000 in June. A softer print would support expectations for less restrictive Federal Reserve policy, with implications for industrial energy demand and the commodity complex.
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