Natural Gas Futures Slip Below $3 After Heat Waves Fade

"I would look for rallies to fade," he said. "The $3.50 level is a barrier. If we break above it, then $4.50 becomes possible. That is not the base case."

The seasonal pattern drives the setup. Natural gas demand peaks in winter for heating and in summer for cooling. Shoulder months like late summer typically see the weakest prices. Without a fresh catalyst – a hurricane threat or a sharp drop in storage injections – traders expect the path of least resistance to be lower.

Chris said he does not buy natural gas until the market begins trading winter contracts in the fall. "You will see a gradual rise when cold weather expectations build, and then spikes when actual cold arrives. That is the cycle. Short-term trading is preferred. Big moves are unexpected."