Natural Gas Breaks Support, Double Top Signals Bearish Reversal

Bruce's initial downside target sits in the $2.88 to $2.84 range. The 50-day moving average stands at $2.88. The 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the advance from the February low is at $2.84. Inside that band sits the prior swing low at $2.86, which was part of the chain of higher lows that defined the uptrend. A close below $2.86 would be another bearish signal. The next zone below that, the 78.6% retracement at $2.69, would then become the active target.

The bigger question touches the larger trend on the weekly chart. A long-term uptrend line broke in February, leading to a decline to $2.50. That low turned out to be the bottom of a falling bullish wedge. The breakout from that wedge powered the rally back up to test the same broken trendline as resistance. With that test now done and price turning back down, the pattern completes a classic support-turned-resistance sequence. Bruce said that opens the path for a bearish continuation of the move that started in February when the trendline first failed.

The next concrete marker to track is the 50-day moving average at $2.88. A daily close below that level would signal that the uptrend's structural integrity is under threat. A bounce from $2.88 would keep the larger trendline-test narrative alive. A clean break shifts the focus to $2.69.