Natural Gas Breaks Below $2.635, Flag Targets $2.495

Resistance now sits at the prior support zones. Tuesday's high of $2.79 is the first level to watch. A rise above that would suggest short-term strengthening, though the larger trend remains bearish until the contract clears the $2.81 swing high and the falling 20-day moving average near $2.82. The moving average has capped every rally since mid-May.

For now, the break below $2.635 keeps the bearish structure intact. A recovery above $2.79 would be needed to weaken the outlook, but no catalyst has emerged to shift the supply-demand balance. The next scheduled storage data from the Energy Information Administration is due Thursday, a release that has moved prices in recent weeks. Traders will watch for a build above the five-year average, which would reinforce the bearish case.