Natural Gas Breaches $2.77 as Expanding Triangle Points Lower

The support zone from $2.82 to $2.74 – which held through last week's choppy trade – gave way quickly on the open. A daily close below $2.80 would confirm the breakdown as structural rather than a false move. Below that, the 88.6% Fibonacci retracement sits at $2.74, a level that may provide a brief pause before the next leg lower. The ultimate target remains the $2.65 low, and the bearish signals accumulating over the past week put that level at risk.

A bounce from current levels is possible; the lower boundary of the expanding triangle has produced intraday reversals before. But each successive rally has drawn sellers at a lower high, and the 20-day moving average rejection on Friday capped the last attempt at $2.98. Momentum is shifting decisively to the downside, and until natural gas reclaims $2.82 on a closing basis, the path of least resistance points lower.

For traders tracking the setup, the next forex market hours session will test whether the gap lower draws in fresh sellers or triggers a short-covering bounce. Either way, the expanding triangle's resolution appears to be resolving in favor of the bears.