
Natural gas futures test $2.65 support as supply caps late-summer demand. Prices remain stuck in a tight range with the September contract nearing expiry and winter European demand a potential catalyst.
Natural gas futures are testing the $2.65 support level as ample supply holds down late-summer demand, keeping the market stuck in a narrow range. Prices have drifted between that floor and the 50-day exponential moving average near $2.87 for the past two weeks, with no clear catalyst to push them either way.
The market is in what Chris, a senior analyst at FXEmpire, calls the "quiet season." Mild temperatures across the U.S. mean limited cooling demand, and storage inventories are healthy. "We are just simply stuck in relatively tight consolidation," he wrote. The September contract is nearing expiry, and the roll to October could bring a shift. "The October contract does tend to be a little bit more bullish than September because you start to talk about cooler temperatures," Chris said. The weather has not yet turned cooler, he added.
Chris also pointed to the possibility that European demand for U.S. natural gas could spike this winter, providing a meaningful boost. For the near term, supply is abundant enough to cap any rally.
The $2.65 level is the key near-term risk. A break below that could open the way to $2.50. On the upside, a move above the 50-day EMA would target $3.00. Chris sees continued choppy, quiet trading until a new catalyst appears. The short interest in natural gas recently hit 207K contracts, as detailed in our earlier analysis: Natural Gas: 207K Shorts Face Heat Test as Front-Month Holds Support.
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