Muted Demand, Plentiful Supply Keep Natural Gas Near $2.75

The next test comes with the rollover to the October contract in about two weeks. Cooler weather in the U.S. Northeast typically forces early heating days, which often marks the start of stronger momentum. Chris said that is the usual beginning of a more bullish stretch.

Geopolitical risk remains a wild card. If Iranian missiles again hit Qatari production, supply into Europe could be disrupted, and that risk grows more acute heading into winter. For now, any rally would face resistance at the 50-day exponential moving average of $2.90, followed by the $3 level, Chris said.

Chris, who identifies as a seasonal trader, said he does not like natural gas at this weak time of year, though the coming months tend to be bullish. The October contract rollover, scheduled in about two weeks, will be the first test of that view.