
Mesoblast has treated all 350 patients in its sham-controlled MSB-DR004 back pain trial; cell therapy topline data are scheduled for mid-2027.
Mesoblast (ASX:MSB) has completed patient treatment in the Phase 3 trial of its cell therapy for chronic low back pain. All 350 participants in the MSB-DR004 study have now received either a single intradiscal injection of rexlemestrocel-L, delivered into the spinal disc, or a sham procedure.
The trial's primary endpoint is pain reduction at 12 months, testing whether one injection can produce durable relief rather than a short-lived effect. Secondary measures cover physical function and quality of life. The study also records whether patients cut back on pain medication, including opioids, and low back pain is among the most common reasons Americans receive opioid prescriptions.
Mesoblast said the 350-patient cohort gives the study enough statistical power to detect a treatment benefit over the sham arm. The sham comparator is there for a reason: pain studies carry a high placebo response, and the design must separate any real effect from that expectation. Rexlemestrocel-L is aimed at inflammatory degenerative disc disease. In that condition, ongoing inflammation sits behind the disc breakdown and the pain signal.
This is the second Phase 3 run for rexlemestrocel-L in the same condition. The earlier MSB-DR003 study met its 12-month primary endpoint, and Mesoblast designed MSB-DR004 to repeat that result at a larger scale. A confirmatory read needs to show an effect of similar size; significance alone is a lower bar. The company frames the coming result as the decision point on whether the therapy advances toward a US regulatory submission.
CEO Silviu Itescu called the completion of treatment a major milestone, with the company's focus now on the 12 months of data collection still ahead.
US approval for a cell therapy runs through the FDA's biologics license application, a review that weighs manufacturing and product consistency alongside the clinical data. The mid-2027 readout is the clinical piece of that package.
The commercial case explains the stakes. Mesoblast estimates more than 7 million people in the US have chronic low back pain associated with inflammatory degenerative disc disease and models potential peak annual revenue above US$10 billion even with single-digit market penetration. The patient count covers the US alone. Mesoblast's own figures work out to a per-patient price in the tens of thousands of dollars a year: 5% penetration of 7 million patients is 350,000 people, and US$10 billion spread across them comes to roughly US$28,500 each.
A positive readout would give Mesoblast a second straight Phase 3 success in the same indication. The failure modes are equally visible: a miss on the 12-month primary endpoint, or a sham response strong enough to close the gap, leaves the program without that second success. Enrollment is closed, and the stock's focus now shifts to the follow-up data.
Topline results are expected in mid-2027, once the final treated patient completes 12 months of follow-up.
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