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A US inflation surprise widened the policy yield gap and sent the dollar higher. Hawkish BoJ signals kept the yen from sliding further, confining USD/JPY to a tight range.
The Canadian dollar lost ground after a robust US inflation print pushed Treasury yields higher, widening the rate differential with the BoC. The loonie now eyes the next batch of US data and Fed commentary for further direction.
Copper's resilience despite Middle East tensions reflects a structural supply deficit that is insulating the metal from risk-off moves, supporting commodity currencies like AUD and CAD.
The May 14-15 Xi-Trump meeting is expected to yield symbolic trade boards and an extended tariff truce. No shift on Taiwan is expected, keeping USD/CNH rangebound. Rate differentials remain the real catalyst.
The Fed’s recognition of AI-boosted productivity signals a higher neutral rate, keeping the policy stance tighter for longer. The dollar inches up, pressuring EUR/USD toward 1.0800.
Gasoline averaged $4.504/gal as CPI runs at 3.8%. Service inflation stays sticky, says Goolsbee. The OPEC+ meeting is the next catalyst for the crude-to-CPI transmission.
Austan Goolsbee’s acknowledgment that the U.S. has an inflation problem sends ripples through rate markets, dollar, and risk assets. Next marker: upcoming CPI data.
The euro dropped against the dollar after a hotter-than-expected inflation report forced traders to abandon near-term Fed rate-cut bets, widening the rate gap. The next test comes with the Fed minutes and the core PCE release.
Cable fell 0.8% as calls for PM Starmer to resign deepened the UK political crisis. The daily cloud is narrowing; a break below 1.3467/50 would signal a reversal.
ING flags a building political risk premium in the pound, adding a headwind as the dollar rallies. The next UK event will either entrench or unwind that discount.
Record US crude output is reshaping the supply-demand balance, with direct implications for the dollar and oil-linked currencies. Traders reassess rate-cut timelines and CAD, NOK positioning.
Brent crude back above $107 and April CPI at 3.8% yoy lifted Fed tightening expectations, while sterling slumped on UK political turmoil. Next catalyst: Trump-Xi summit.
Headline CPI hit 3.8% yoy, highest since May 2023; core rose 0.4% mom. The beat signals broadening inflation, delaying rate cuts and supporting the dollar.
Monthly core CPI rose 0.4% vs 0.3% expected, pushing Fed hike odds higher and lifting the dollar index while equities retreated. Next focus: PPI and retail sales.
The Redbook year-over-year print hit 9.6% from 7.8% on May 8, signaling accelerating chain-store spending. A stronger consumer could push the first Fed cut further out, keeping the dollar bid against the euro and yen.
US CPI of 3.8% yoy lifted the dollar, dragging GBP/USD lower. UK political noise extracts a risk premium. Next: UK jobs and BoE.
ADP NER Pulse added 33K jobs, staying in a 30-40K range for five weeks. Steady labor data supports the dollar; the lack of acceleration caps upside before the monthly NER.
The -1.3% YoY print topped the -1.5% consensus, reducing the odds of a jumbo Banxico rate cut and offering a short-term floor for the peso. Next marker: Banxico minutes.
Polymarket end-May Hormuz normalisation odds fell to 12.5% from 35.5% after Trump rejected Iran's proposal. WTI crude's 42% rally since late February sets up a test of $102.54 resistance.
The loonie slid as risk aversion boosted the greenback, with the US inflation report set to dictate the next leg for USD/CAD and Fed rate expectations.
The dollar has been locked in a 0.4% range as the Strait of Hormuz blockade persists. Upcoming US inflation data could force a breakout in EURUSD and USDJPY.
A hotter-than-expected CPI print nudged the dollar higher but failed to break its trading range. BBH sees range-bound gains, with the next CPI and FOMC as the breakout catalysts.
Polymarket odds of Hormuz normalization by May fell to 12.5% from 35.5% in five days. WTI crude faces resistance at $102.54, with a break targeting $108.20.
Brown Brothers Harriman sees a Bank of Japan rate hike, not currency intervention, as the real catalyst for USD/JPY, shifting the burden to the next policy meeting and raising two-way risk.
Food inflation climbed to 4.20%, keeping the repo rate at 5.25% and a neutral stance. The RBI flags imported crude oil as the next inflation trigger.
South Africa's manufacturing production rebounded to 0.9% YoY in March from -2.8%, reducing the odds of an early SARB rate cut and offering support to the rand.
Oil surged $3, dollar hit five-session high (JPY157.75) after Trump’s ‘life support’ ceasefire remark. US April CPI at 3.7% may push hike odds past 31%.
Crude oil holds near $100 as Razan Hilal flags $108 as the next target. U.S. CPI and Chinese PPI data will test whether dollar strength or demand dominates the breakout.
TD Securities analysts see inflation prints as the primary driver of Fed rate expectations and dollar direction. The next CPI release will test the current policy path.
The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index printed at 95.9 in April, missing the 96.1 consensus. The miss challenges the dollar's rate advantage narrative ahead of CPI.