Recent headlines from the sources AlphaScala monitors. AlphaScala analysis is published in the main market section.
ING flags UK political risk as a weight on sterling, pushing EUR/GBP higher. The bank's note points to a fresh leg higher as fiscal uncertainty saps demand for the currency.
US PPI jumped to 6% YoY in April as oil costs surged, reigniting stagflation fears and sending the dollar higher. Next catalyst: the CPI print.
The April PPI surge, driven by energy costs from the Iran conflict, pushed Treasury yields higher and widened rate differentials, pressuring EUR/USD and GBP/USD.
Scotiabank sees the Canadian dollar trading sideways against the greenback as valuation looks stretched, limiting near-term upside for the loonie. Traders now watch for a catalyst to break the range, with Bank of Canada and Fed policy paths the next key driver.
EIA slashes supply forecast by 2.6M bpd, IEA sees 1.78M bpd deficit. Buffers cap prices now; structural damage points to $95 Brent in 2026 and a multi-quarter tailwind for CAD, NOK, BRL.
US PPI surge drives Fed hike expectations toward 40%, while UK leadership challenge threat sends sterling to test 1.3453 support. Next: ECB speakers and UK political developments.
The British pound weakened against the Japanese yen as political turmoil in the UK raised questions about fiscal policy direction, driving flows into the safe-haven yen. The next test for GBP/JPY is the upcoming leadership vote.
Crude oil cleared the 96.90 resistance, opening a path toward 106.00-108.35. Support at 93.90 must hold. The next test is whether the breakout can sustain above 96.90 on a closing basis.
Headline PPI rose 1.4% mom, the largest gain since March 2022, with services and goods accelerating. The dollar jumped and EUR/USD fell below 1.05 on near-term Fed rate cut repricing.
US PPI hit 6% YoY in April, well above the 4.9% forecast, forcing a repricing of Fed rate-cut bets and sending the dollar higher against the euro and pound.
TD Securities sees fiscal loosening and contained wages as the key drivers for AUD/USD. The next catalyst is the federal budget update, testing whether the Australian dollar breaks out.
The 1.4% monthly PPI gain nearly tripled estimates, lifting the two-year yield above 4% and sending GBP/USD and NZD/USD to fresh lows. The next test is the PCE deflator, which will incorporate the inflation pulse.
The 0.9pp beat reset Fed rate-cut expectations, sending EUR/USD below 1.07 and GBP/USD through 1.25. Next catalyst: CPI and Fed speeches.
US core PPI jumped 1% MoM in April, tripling the 0.3% forecast. The dollar surged as rate-cut bets collapsed; EUR/USD broke below 1.06. Next: Fed minutes and CPI.
Rising price pressures challenge the rate-cut narrative, pushing Treasury yields higher and strengthening the dollar. The next CPI print will test the Fed's resolve.
Oil's surge widens the cost gap between crude-linked and gas-pegged LNG, strengthening the case for US cargoes. Cheniere Energy's spot exposure stands to benefit.
TD Securities flags that Bank of Canada meeting minutes will be parsed for rate-path signals, with the loonie's direction at stake. Markets will look for any shift in the governing council's tone.
US CPI surged to 3.8% y/y, shifting Fed rate hike odds to 33%. UK political risk pushed Starmer exit probability to 66%, driving 30-year Gilt yields to their highest since 1998.
The ECB's Olli Rehn pushed back against oil-driven tightening, signaling a focus on core inflation. The comment could cap euro upside and limit bund yield spikes ahead of the June meeting.
The MBA index rose 1.7% after a 4.4% decline, hinting that easing mortgage rates are stabilizing housing demand. Next: CPI data will confirm if the dollar’s rate advantage holds.
EUR/GBP is approaching 0.8650 as soft Eurozone data widens rate differentials against the pound. The next support test hinges on upcoming BoE commentary.
Sweden's temporary fuel tax cut aims to cool headline inflation. The Riksbank's focus on core prices leaves the krona's rate path uncertain.
Crude oil breached $100 a barrel after a Strait of Hormuz disruption and stalled US-Iran talks. The move is repricing inflation expectations and pressuring currencies, with the dollar strengthening.
A Fed alert morning bid resets rate expectations, lifting the 2-year yield and the dollar. The transmission chain then hits equities, commodities, and crypto. Next marker: FOMC decision.
ECB's Muller ties the June rate hold to a quick Strait of Hormuz resolution, putting energy-price risk at the center of the policy path. Next: euro reaction if disruption persists.
The break below 1.1700 accelerates the selloff. Widening rate differentials favor the dollar. Next support at 1.1650; ECB minutes and US CPI are the next catalysts.
The pound is on track for its first weekly loss in six weeks as Starmer resists resignation calls, injecting political risk into a stability-driven rally.
Kuroda's statement validates the 160 barrier, recasting the yen carry trade and limiting USD/JPY upside. Next test: BOJ meeting on 14 June and US CPI.
Hot CPI data keeps the Fed cautious and lifts the dollar. Danske Bank sees interest rates staying high, widening yield gaps and applying fresh pressure on EUR/USD and USD/JPY.
WTI at $101.54 and Brent at $107.28 after 30-day U.S.-Iran ceasefire; rate differentials shift for USD/CAD and EUR/USD. Next catalyst: U.S. crude inventories and OPEC+ policy.