Recent headlines from the sources AlphaScala monitors. AlphaScala analysis is published in the main market section.
India's new export duty on petrol, diesel, and aviation fuel widens the trade deficit and compresses refiner margins. The rupee faces additional pressure as the RBI's room for intervention narrows.
EUR/GBP climbs above resistance as UK political uncertainty delays key fiscal decisions. Next move hinges on the speed of the leadership contest. Pound faces headwinds until clear policy direction.
Potential Chinese crude buying and Hormuz tensions extend WTI rally, with traders eyeing US-China deal confirmation and Gulf escalation risks.
April inflation came in at 0.14% MoM, far below the 0.3% consensus, threatening the rate differential that has supported the ruble. The CBR’s June 7 meeting now carries higher stakes for USD/RUB.
The in-line Q1 GDP reading removes a domestic volatility catalyst for USD/COP, keeping the carry trade's wide rate differential intact.
The 30-year auction cleared at 5%, pushing 10-year yields to a 10-month high and sending the dollar surging. Next week's CPI will confirm or reverse the move.
Colombia's March retail sales jumped 13.4% YoY, a 3.3pp beat vs. 10.1% consensus, challenging rate-cut bets and supporting the peso's carry advantage. Next marker: April CPI.
The revision challenges the assumption that the euro area can close the growth gap with the US, shifting the focus to upcoming PMI data and the next ECB meeting for confirmation.
The loonie's drop against the greenback despite higher crude underscores how Bank of Canada rate expectations now dominate the pair's direction.
Japan's solid GDP growth has not translated into yen strength because a persistent trade deficit is driving real-money flows, DBS analysts say. The next trade balance release will test the yen's path.
A fall meeting between Xi and Trump could reset trade-war expectations and shift USD/CNY volatility. The visit, invited on September 24, is now confirmed. Any tariff progress would weaken the dollar against the yuan.
WTI crude retreated from $106 resistance as a surging US dollar offset supply risks from the Strait of Hormuz. Peace deal odds for June 30 now in focus.
Headline inflation jumped on energy costs. The Bank of Canada’s core measures stayed subdued, leaving rate-cut expectations intact. Next: retail sales and GDP.
ING strategists see the dollar breakout as a direct result of a hawkish repricing of Fed policy, driven by sticky inflation and resilient activity data. The next CPI print will test the move.
The April industrial production beat pushes back Fed rate-cut expectations, widening yield differentials against the euro and sterling. Next catalyst: retail sales.
Crude oil cleared the $96.90 resistance, targeting the $106.00–$108.35 zone. Support at $93.90 now serves as the invalidation pivot. Confirmation of the breakout hinges on a daily close above the level and a successful retest of the new floor.
US industrial production rose 0.7% in April, beating the 0.3% forecast. Utilities output surged, partly on AI demand. The beat may delay Fed rate cuts, supporting the dollar.
US capacity utilization hit 76.1% in April, beating the 75.8% forecast. The beat reinforces the hawkish Fed repricing, widening yield spreads and pressuring EUR/USD and GBP/USD.
The $13.5 billion increase may reflect gold revaluation, not fresh FX inflows. The finance ministry's next purchase plan will clarify the ruble's path.
Rising US rate expectations widen the yield gap, pushing USD/JPY higher, but Japanese officials’ warnings and intervention risk curb the sell-off. The next move hinges on upcoming US data and any verbal pushback from Tokyo.
Societe Generale expects the British pound to weaken against the dollar, adding to a cautious sterling outlook. Traders now watch UK inflation data and the Bank of England's next decision for confirmation of the rate-driven move.
Higher pump prices feed into headline CPI and risk second-round effects, DBS notes, complicating the Reserve Bank of India's easing timeline.
The New York Fed's manufacturing gauge jumped to 19.6, far above the 7.5 forecast, as new orders surged. The dollar strengthened on reduced rate-cut expectations.
Foreign portfolio investment in Canadian securities fell to $4.62B in March, well below the $11.4B consensus. The shortfall raises questions about foreign demand for Canadian assets and could weigh on the loonie ahead of key rate decisions.
March foreign portfolio investment fell to $3.9B from $25.36B, an 85% drop that removes a major source of CAD selling pressure. Next catalyst: Canada CPI.
The New York Fed's Empire State manufacturing index surged to 19.6 in May, far above the 7.5 consensus, signaling accelerating factory activity and boosting the dollar.
The 17% monthly surge masks a 1% year-over-year decline in actual starts and a stark Toronto-Vancouver divergence that complicates the rate-cut narrative for the Bank of Canada.
TD Securities sees the Fed holding rates through 2026, extending the high-for-longer dollar narrative and pressuring rate-sensitive currencies. Next test: the March FOMC meeting.
WTI surges past $104, 10Y yields hit 4.54%, equities drop 2% as Beijing ends with no trade deal. EUR/USD down to 1.1625, gold below $4,550. Next: U.S. data.
April starts jump to 279.3K vs 240K consensus, narrowing rate differential and putting next CPI release in focus for CAD bulls.