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Exports surged 14.1% to $359.4bn as buyers stockpiled before Iran war costs hit. The surplus and energy import surge shift rate differentials and commodity FX.
A 63 Bcf storage injection far below forecasts sparked a brief short-cover, but record U.S. production capped the move. With natural gas at $2.75, the $2.749 pivot now frames the next leg; a breakdown would tighten the screws on the Canadian dollar.
GBP/INR closed near 126.9 after pushing above 129, with oil-driven volatility dictating Rupee direction. Next catalysts: UK GDP data and any US-Iran crude shock.
Banks polled by Exchange Rates UK Research see EUR/GBP rising from 0.8650 toward 0.88–0.90 by 2027, with ING and Goldman Sachs among the most bullish.
April payrolls surged 115K, nearly double estimates, but 0.2% monthly wage growth and a flatlining household income picture sent the dollar lower. Next catalyst: CPI.
Despite US strikes on Iranian-linked ports and a strong payrolls report, the dollar weakened as traders bet AI earnings can absorb geopolitical shocks. DXY holds above 97.63 support.
April CPI is expected to rise 0.7%, lifting the annual rate toward 3.9%. Suspected BOJ intervention and easing oil prices have dragged the Dollar Index to the 97.50 pivot, with a breakdown targeting 96.75.
WTI crude under $100, US payrolls +115K (double consensus), Canada -18K jobs. Both central banks on hold, rate differentials stall. USDCAD rangebound; next catalyst: U.S. CPI.
Manufacturing sales rose 3.5% in March, with real gains of 1.7%, while wholesale core sales climbed 1.3%. Next: U.S. CPI could shift rate differentials and USD/CAD direction.
June gas futures straddle $2.749 with a 63 Bcf storage miss keeping bears at bay, but record U.S. output caps rallies. The break sets the inflation pulse for the dollar and EUR/USD.
CFTC data shows speculators cut net short yen positions from a two-year high after suspected Japanese interventions totaling an estimated $60 billion-plus jolted markets.
DXY tests 97.702 support after breaking below 50-day and 200-day MAs. A close below confirms a double top targeting 96.901, with Tuesday's CPI and Friday's Fed handover as catalysts.
China's sulfuric acid export ban removes ~3M tonnes from the seaborne market, hitting Chile's copper refining just as demand from AI and grid buildouts surges. The supply squeeze puts AUD/USD and CAD/JPY in focus.
WTI oil nears its 50-day MA at $94.45 and Brent oil threatens the $100.66 level as traders price in a peace deal. Michigan consumer data shows gasoline price pain. Next move hinges on Iran's response to the US Strait of Hormuz proposal.
A break below the multi-week range floor would open a path toward the year's lows, forcing a repricing of rate differentials that have kept the dollar bid.
Nasdaq's 1.32% rally contrasted with European losses, widening the transatlantic equity gap and raising the odds that EUR/USD tests lower support levels.
WTI stuck between $90 support and $100 resistance, Brent $95-$110, as the range narrows. The next geopolitical headline could break the fragile equilibrium.
Bank of England’s Bailey says he expects a wrestle between the US and global regulators on stablecoins, warning they threaten financial stability.
April payrolls surged 115K vs 62K expected, but a drop in consumer sentiment and inflation fears capped the dollar. WTI holds $93–$98 ahead of Trump-Xi meeting.
Oil fell from $115 to $100 on a US-Iran memo, easing inflation fears. US labor data beat, keeping the dollar supported. Next: April CPI on May 12.
One-year inflation expectations eased to 4.5%, but current conditions plunged to 47.8, signaling that high prices are still crushing household budgets and may cap the dollar's upside.
115K NFP beat and consumer sentiment miss left dollar stalled. WTI’s $93–$98 range and the May 14 Trump-Xi meeting now dictate the next USDCAD breakout.
Year-ahead inflation expectations eased to 4.5% but remain well above pre-war levels, keeping the Fed on hold and the dollar's upside limited as growth fears mount.
WTI carved a $90–$110 bracket Friday, with Brent holding $100 support as traders ignored refinery attacks. The exhaustion signals a range that could steady the dollar; the next test is a break of the Thursday low that would target $90.
April nonfarm payrolls rose 115k, smashing the 65k consensus, while average hourly earnings rose just 0.2% m/m, keeping the Fed on hold and the dollar rangebound.
Full-time positions plunged 47k while hourly wage growth cooled to 4.5% yoy, reinforcing a dovish BoC path and potentially weakening the Canadian dollar.
115k payrolls beat 60k consensus, but 0.2% mom wage growth softens hawkish impulse. Dollar initially rallies then fades; focus moves to core CPI.
Canada lost 17.7K jobs vs 15.0K expected, all in full-time, pushing unemployment higher. USDCAD surged through 1.3665, with the 38.2% retracement at 1.3708 and the 100-day MA at 1.3720 now in sight.
Crude oil slid toward the $84.20–$85.20 support zone on peace-deal headlines that could restore Hormuz flows. A deal update may bounce price to $96.90 or break support.
EUR/USD at 1.1760, GBP/USD above 1.3600 as dollar slips on truce optimism and US jobs data looms. Gold bids $4,718; yields dip. Next: payrolls.