Recent headlines from the sources AlphaScala monitors. AlphaScala analysis is published in the main market section.
RBC economists say energy-driven Canadian CPI reinforces BoC hold. Core inflation split and the next BoC meeting test USD/CAD and rate differentials.
Trump's Iran remark forces reassessment of dollar risk premium and oil-sensitive FX pairs. Watch USD/JPY and Brent for confirmation within 48 hours.
The 10-year yield hit 4.671% after nine days of gains, the highest since Jan 15. Drones from Iraq and a new Fed chair tighten the dollar setup. Next catalyst: Warsh swearing-in Friday.
Rabobank warns UAE exit and NOPEC risk could break OPEC+ discipline. FX implications for CAD, NOK, and the dollar rate path. Next catalyst: June meeting.
The Canadian dollar strengthened against the euro despite softer domestic CPI. Euro weakness from geopolitical risk and rate differentials drove the move. Next data: Canada GDP, ECB meeting.
Fed rate hike repricing pushes DXY toward 99.50 resistance. StoneX's Boutros explains why this level decides dollar trend. Next CPI and FOMC are key.
The GDT auction deceleration removes a key support for the kiwi and refocuses attention on the RBNZ rate path. The next auction in two weeks is the immediate catalyst for NZD/USD.
UK political relief is lifting the British pound, but interest rate expectations cap the upside, Scotiabank notes. Next catalyst: BoE data and US dollar moves.
DXY remains range-bound but BBH flags a potential break. Higher or lower changes yield spreads, currency pairs, and commodity pricing. Next catalyst: US data and Fed path.
Commerzbank analysts see rising aluminium inventories as a sign of weak demand, pressuring prices. Traders should watch for further inventory builds and demand data from China.
DBS analysts flag that the Bank of England's inflation outlook depends on oil. Traders should watch Brent as a leading indicator for GBP rate expectations.
NZD/USD slides as USD gains on Iran deal hopes and hawkish Fed expectations. The next catalyst is whether the dollar's dual support holds or fades.
Scotiabank flags three persistent channels driving CAD weakness: oil prices, BoC constraints, and Fed higher-for-longer. Next catalysts are Canadian GDP and US NFP.
April pending home sales rose 1.4% vs 1.0% estimate, signaling resilient demand. The beat supports the Fed's higher-for-longer stance, favouring the dollar over EUR and GBP.
Pending home sales jumped 3.2% YoY in April from –1.1%, the strongest gain in over a year. The print reinforces the higher-for-longer rate narrative and supports the USD. Next catalyst is the May jobs report.
April pending home sales rose 1.4% MoM, beating 1% forecast. The data reinforces the higher-for-longer dollar trade. Next test: May payrolls and CPI for EUR/USD.
Brazil's central bank abandons forward guidance as Middle East conflict clouds outlook. Traders lose a key tool for pricing BRL and Selic path.
BNP Paribas says Eurozone structural shifts – fiscal integration, energy diversification – offset China slowdown pressure on EUR/USD. The ECB policy path is the key mechanism.
BBH notes intervention risk is limiting yen losses. The threat of BOJ action compresses USD/JPY downside. Next catalyst: BOJ policy decision.
A US official's warning against excessive FX volatility briefly lifted the yen. The move faded quickly, leaving USD/JPY focused on the next catalyst.
Canada CPI missed estimates, weakening the loonie as the BoC rate path repriced lower. Safe-haven demand for the US dollar added pressure. The next catalyst is the BoC decision.
Treasury yields hit 4.62% as foreign central banks liquidate holdings to defend currencies from oil shock. China at 2008 low, Japan cuts $47B.
Weekly Redbook Index decelerated to 8.1% from 9.6%, the first notable pullback in 2024. The direction matters for Fed rate-cut bets and the dollar's upside. The next reading will confirm if the trend holds.
Multi-week price channel persists as BoE-Fed rate differential locks. Look for UK inflation or US core services data to break GBP/USD range.
Canada's April CPI rose 2.8% yoy, below 3.1% consensus, while core measures slowed. Bank of Canada stays patient. USD/CAD muted near 1.3870. Next catalyst: GDP data.
Canada's core CPI rose 0.1% MoM in April after flat March, too small to alter BoC rate-cut expectations. Next CAD catalyst is April GDP and jobs data.
Canada March building permits surged 10.3% m/m, triple the 3.0% estimate. The beat supports CAD, yet rate differentials cap USD/CAD downside. Next test: April housing starts.
Canada CPI at 2.8% in April missed the 3.1% forecast, the biggest downside surprise in core inflation since early 2023. The BoC now has cover to cut rates as early as July. Focus shifts to May employment data.
Canada CPI MoM missed 0.6% forecast at 0.4% in April, easing inflation pressure on BoC. CAD faces downside as rate differentials with US widen.
April core CPI print at 0.2% MoM removes inflation surprise risk for BoC. Now USD/CAD waits on GDP and the June 5 policy decision. Range 1.3550-1.3750 likely.