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The euro dropped against the dollar after a hotter-than-expected inflation report forced traders to abandon near-term Fed rate-cut bets, widening the rate gap. The next test comes with the Fed minutes and the core PCE release.
Cable fell 0.8% as calls for PM Starmer to resign deepened the UK political crisis. The daily cloud is narrowing; a break below 1.3467/50 would signal a reversal.
ING flags a building political risk premium in the pound, adding a headwind as the dollar rallies. The next UK event will either entrench or unwind that discount.
Record US crude output is reshaping the supply-demand balance, with direct implications for the dollar and oil-linked currencies. Traders reassess rate-cut timelines and CAD, NOK positioning.
Brent crude back above $107 and April CPI at 3.8% yoy lifted Fed tightening expectations, while sterling slumped on UK political turmoil. Next catalyst: Trump-Xi summit.
Headline CPI hit 3.8% yoy, highest since May 2023; core rose 0.4% mom. The beat signals broadening inflation, delaying rate cuts and supporting the dollar.
Monthly core CPI rose 0.4% vs 0.3% expected, pushing Fed hike odds higher and lifting the dollar index while equities retreated. Next focus: PPI and retail sales.
The Redbook year-over-year print hit 9.6% from 7.8% on May 8, signaling accelerating chain-store spending. A stronger consumer could push the first Fed cut further out, keeping the dollar bid against the euro and yen.
US CPI of 3.8% yoy lifted the dollar, dragging GBP/USD lower. UK political noise extracts a risk premium. Next: UK jobs and BoE.
ADP NER Pulse added 33K jobs, staying in a 30-40K range for five weeks. Steady labor data supports the dollar; the lack of acceleration caps upside before the monthly NER.
The -1.3% YoY print topped the -1.5% consensus, reducing the odds of a jumbo Banxico rate cut and offering a short-term floor for the peso. Next marker: Banxico minutes.
Polymarket end-May Hormuz normalisation odds fell to 12.5% from 35.5% after Trump rejected Iran's proposal. WTI crude's 42% rally since late February sets up a test of $102.54 resistance.
The loonie slid as risk aversion boosted the greenback, with the US inflation report set to dictate the next leg for USD/CAD and Fed rate expectations.
The dollar has been locked in a 0.4% range as the Strait of Hormuz blockade persists. Upcoming US inflation data could force a breakout in EURUSD and USDJPY.
A hotter-than-expected CPI print nudged the dollar higher but failed to break its trading range. BBH sees range-bound gains, with the next CPI and FOMC as the breakout catalysts.
Polymarket odds of Hormuz normalization by May fell to 12.5% from 35.5% in five days. WTI crude faces resistance at $102.54, with a break targeting $108.20.
Brown Brothers Harriman sees a Bank of Japan rate hike, not currency intervention, as the real catalyst for USD/JPY, shifting the burden to the next policy meeting and raising two-way risk.
Food inflation climbed to 4.20%, keeping the repo rate at 5.25% and a neutral stance. The RBI flags imported crude oil as the next inflation trigger.
South Africa's manufacturing production rebounded to 0.9% YoY in March from -2.8%, reducing the odds of an early SARB rate cut and offering support to the rand.
Oil surged $3, dollar hit five-session high (JPY157.75) after Trump’s ‘life support’ ceasefire remark. US April CPI at 3.7% may push hike odds past 31%.
Crude oil holds near $100 as Razan Hilal flags $108 as the next target. U.S. CPI and Chinese PPI data will test whether dollar strength or demand dominates the breakout.
TD Securities analysts see inflation prints as the primary driver of Fed rate expectations and dollar direction. The next CPI release will test the current policy path.
The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index printed at 95.9 in April, missing the 96.1 consensus. The miss challenges the dollar's rate advantage narrative ahead of CPI.
Norway's oil revenue forecast jumps to $78.71B. The krone won't benefit – the oil fund's FX sales and a broken petro-currency link shift the real read to European gas supply.
Euro broke below 1.1750 as mixed sentiment data and geopolitical risks boosted the dollar. Next support at 1.1700, with US CPI the next catalyst.
A hotter US inflation print could upend rate-cut bets, lifting the dollar and pressuring equities, ING says. Next FOMC statement in focus.
Cable slid as UK political uncertainty clouded the rate outlook, while the dollar drew safe-haven bids on escalating Iran tensions. Next catalyst: UK CPI and Middle East developments.
Crude's push to near $98 reorders rate-differential bets, strengthening CAD and krone while hiking pressure on INR and TRY as the Strait of Hormuz disruption persists.
The expectations index beat consensus by over 10 points, while the current situation gauge fell to -77.8, its weakest since the energy shock. The gap limits any sustained euro bid.
Eurozone ZEW economic sentiment jumped to -9.1 in May, smashing the -20 forecast. The beat triggered a quick EUR/USD pop, but the move faded as real-money accounts sold into strength.